[Quote] Forecast: Sticky and short production capacity will surpass cotton in the next 3 years

In just 15 years, the viscose staple fiber production capacity has grown from less than 500,000 tons to 3.77 million tons in 2016, and it is the first product in terms of capacity growth in chemical fiber products. It is expected that the supply and demand situation of viscose staple fiber will continue to remain tight in 2016 throughout the year. Boldly predict that viscose staple fiber production capacity will surpass cotton in the next three years.

This article reviews the production and sales of China's viscose staple fiber in 2016 and its market trends. It also uses the 2013-2016 industry fundamentals and facts as the basis, combining global macroeconomic policies and major impact events for the 2017 viscose staple fiber market. The situation makes a forecast.

1. The apparent demand of China viscose staple fiber

In 2016, the total production capacity of viscose staple fiber production equipment in China was 3.77 million tons, and the output was estimated to be 3.36 million tons, which was an increase of 410,000 tons compared with 2015. In 2016, the cumulative import volume of viscose staple fibers in China is estimated at 125,000 tons, a slight contraction compared with 2015. In 2016, the cumulative export volume of viscose staple fiber in China is expected to be 323,000 tons, which is an increase from 2015.

From 2005 to 2015, the annual apparent growth rate of viscose staple fiber was 13.4%, and the annual growth rate of viscose staple fiber basically maintained 13% in the past five years. Looking at the overall demand, the growth rate in 2013 was faster, and it entered a negative growth rate in 2014. Since most of the raw materials of cotton spinning enterprises were converted from cotton to viscose, the apparent demand for viscose staple fibers began to return to normal in 2015, and the price of cotton in 2016 was more volatile. Large, while the price of polyester staple fiber has been fluctuating sharply with the price of crude oil for a long period of time, making cotton spinning companies use viscose staple fiber as the raw material to further strengthen their dynamics. The apparent demand for viscose staple fiber continues to improve.

2. The Major Domestic Viscose Staple Fibers in 2016

In 2016, the newly added capacity was 50,000 tons from the new agricultural development in Alar, Xinjiang, and the total industrial capacity increased to 3.77 million tons per year. Since 2010, China's viscose staple fiber enterprises mainly have the following performance:

1) Regional concentration . The demand for environmental protection from the government and the people is getting higher and higher, especially after the large-scale smog in November-December 2016. The policy level has increasingly demanded that related industries such as chemical fiber, printing and dyeing, papermaking, and cement must enter the park in order to facilitate “three waste treatment”. . From the current geographical distribution of the viscose staple fiber industry, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hebei, Shandong, Sichuan, and Fujian provinces are the major production bases for the viscose staple fiber industry.

2) The scale of the company has been continuously improved . Compared with that before 2010, the viscose staple fiber industry's production capacity has basically reached a scale of more than 100,000 tons per company. Currently, there are only four factories with a scale of less than 100,000 tons.

3) The environmental protection of enterprises has been increased . According to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, enterprises in the viscose staple fiber industry are increasing their investment in environmental protection every year. New projects directly include supporting environmental protection facilities in the production infrastructure.

4) Most factories in the industry have increased the development of new types of viscose staple fiber . For example, although Tangshan Sanyou has an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons, its annual output of conventional varieties is only between 350,000 and 400,000 tons, with the remaining being Bamboodale. Modal, colored viscose staple fiber, high white viscose staple fiber and other differentiated viscose staple fiber. The production capacity of differentiated fibers has been continuously improved, and objectively evaded the adverse effects of drastic fluctuations in market prices caused by insufficient market capacity after the expansion of industry scale.

3 . Viscous staple fiber starting load changes

The average start-up load in 2016 exceeded 90% to 90.22%, which is nearly 5 percentage points higher than that in 2015. In 2016, the industry maintained its high-load operation at 90% for most of the time. In the third quarter, the market rose sharply and supply was tight. The industrial load was once as high as 95%. Only around the Spring Festival and during the Hangzhou G20 Summit, the industry load was reduced to around 85%, which was the lowest in the year.

4. Changes in viscose staple fiber sales

In 2016, the overall sales of viscose staple fibers were better than last year. In July and December, the industries were all concentrated and oversold. In 2016, the average monthly sales volume was 283,000 tons, which was significantly higher than the 247,000 tons in 2015.

The main factors for the increase in sales in 2016 are:

1) The price of cotton fluctuates significantly from 2015 to 2016. At the same time, better cotton supply is insufficient in the market, making some cotton-spun companies change to viscose staple fiber.

2) The “imitation rabbit hair” core yarn has been in short supply in the market in 2016. The main raw material of “imitation rabbit hair” core yarn is: 70% viscose staple fiber, 30% nylon staple fiber and PBT three raw materials, because this Variety, not only viscose staple fiber, showed a shortage in 2016, but also led to a state in which nylon staple fiber was in short supply throughout 2016. The total market volume of this breed in 2016 was approximately 1.3 million tons.

3) Viscose staple fiber Although 2016 production increased compared to 2015, due to the increase in downstream demand, and 2016, the entire viscose staple fiber industry due to weather, environmental protection and other factors, the number of parking more than in 2015, at a specific time The inner and downstream markets feared that they couldn’t get the raw materials, and the industry had concentrated on sourcing raw materials.