2012 refrigerant market: steady supply and demand low prices

In 2011, it was not easy for complete machine companies to purchase refrigerants. Because of this year, the price of refrigerant has never been so embarrassing - it quickly peaked at the beginning of the year and plummeted in the second half, almost half of the high point. In the words of the purchaser of a well-known domestic white power company, "Anyway, the price has dropped."

Summarizing the price trend of refrigerants in the past three years, from 2009 to the first half of 2011, the price of refrigerants has generally risen. The price diving in the second half of 2011 has brought current refrigerant prices down to the level of early 2010. It is still unknown how the future market price trend will be. However, most people in the industry believe that the ups and downs of refrigerant prices in 2011 will be gone forever. Stabilization will be the keyword for refrigerant prices in 2012.

R22: Prices may rise slightly In recent years, the price of R22 refrigerant has basically been the watershed in mid-2011. From January 2009 to June 2011, the price of R22 has been showing a rising trend. By early 2011, the price has climbed to nearly 30,000 yuan per ton. In the second half of 2011, the price plummeted to 13,000 yuan per ton.

A home appliance company's procurement staff said, “In the first half of 2011, the price of R22 was too high. Our pressure was so heavy that we had to compress our inventory and how much we bought. From the second half of last year, the price of R22 has dropped back to the level of two years ago. This is a good thing for air-conditioning companies. It can make the profits of enterprises reach a reasonable level, and the market price of air-conditioning is more advantageous."

It is reported that the main reason for the sharp fluctuations in R22 prices in 2011 was the change in raw material supply and demand in the downstream market. “R22 refrigerant was in tight supply in the first half of 2011, and there was an oversupply situation in the second half of the year.” An industry source told the “Electrical” reporter.

The main raw material for R22 is hydrofluoric acid and ****. In recent years, due to the shutdown of some fluorine chemical plants abroad, the supply of R22 raw materials has been strained and the prices of related products have also increased. At the same time, the price of fluorite powder used to produce fluorinated industrial products such as hydrofluoric acid has also increased. In addition, on the one hand, foreign low-end fluorine chemical plants have gradually shifted to China where fluorite resources are more abundant. China's low-end fluorine chemical capacity has continued to expand, and the demand for fluorspar has rapidly increased. On the other hand, 3 In July, the "fluorite industry access standards" jointly issued by seven ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was formally implemented, and the quota for fluorite mining was reduced year by year. For these reasons, the price of fluorite ore fines increased from approximately RMB 400/t at the end of 2009 to RMB 3,000/t in June 2011, and is currently maintained at approximately RMB 2,500/t.

Before June 2011, prices of R22 rose as raw material supply was tight and prices rose. At the demand level, the rapid growth of the air-conditioning market in the first half of 2011 further exacerbated the shortage of R22.

“In the second half of 2011, as China continued to increase the production capacity of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and other products, R22 raw material prices began to decline, coupled with air-conditioning production did not meet industry expectations, in the two roles, R22 market prices fell rapidly, the current RMB 14,000 per ton, said Peng Zhiwei, marketing center of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd.

Regarding the future price trend of R22, Peng Zhiwei said that although China's air-conditioning market is still not much improved, the use of R22 will gradually shift to the direction of raw materials, and China has no new R22 capacity. Therefore, the market demand for R22 remains stable. “Since the first half of the calendar year was the peak demand season for R22 refrigerant, I think that R22 would experience a reasonable rebound after being affected by demand growth. In the second half of this year, R22 prices may decline slightly as market demand decreases. However, this year's prices Fluctuations should not be too great."

In July 2011, the Multilateral Executive Committee of the Montreal Protocol approved the HCFC phase-out management plan for China's room air conditioner industry, clarifying the phase-out and phase-out targets for the first phase of China's room air conditioner industry. China's room air conditioner industry accounts for more than 75% of the world's total output. R22 is the main refrigerant of this product. According to the data provided by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, the consumption of R22 in China's room air conditioner industry in 2009 and 2010 were 71,500 tons and 77,900 tons, respectively, and the average control baseline for R22 in the two years was 74,700 tons. According to the Montreal Protocol's accelerated phase-out of HCFCs substances, the replacement time for HCFCs in the first phase of the room air conditioner industry in China is planned to freeze R22 consumption at the baseline level in 2013, and by 10% in 2015.

At the same time, various air-conditioning companies are also actively preparing to replace R22. The strategic roadmap for the inverter technology released by Midea Air-Conditioning shows that Midea will completely cancel the use of R22 refrigerant by 2015.

In the long run, the demand for R22 in the air-conditioning market will gradually decrease. However, Liang Zhibo, general manager of Lianghua Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd., said that the market still has a certain demand for R22. With the overseas R22 production lines being shut down, the United States, India, Iran and other countries are continuously increasing the number of R22 imported from China. At the same time, although R22 refrigerants currently used in air conditioners are being challenged by environmentally friendly refrigerants, R22 can be used as a raw material for the manufacture of tetrafluoroethylene (TFE) and can further produce environmentally friendly refrigerants. Therefore, environmental protection refrigerants in the air conditioning market The replacement will not reduce the industry's demand for R22.

R134a: Continuous release of production capacity may exceed supply The R134a refrigerant is mainly used in export-type domestic air conditioners, a small amount of refrigerators, and some central air conditioners. It is an environmentally friendly refrigerant with an ozone depletion potential (ODP) of zero. The domestic manufacturers of R134a refrigerant mainly include Sinochem Modern Environmental Protection Chemicals (Xi'an) Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Kangtai Fluorine Chemicals Co., Ltd., Shandong Dongyue Chemical Co., Ltd., Juhua Group, Zhejiang Pujiang Baili Chemical Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Co., Ltd. Ltd. The price level of the product is also related to the cost of home appliance companies.

In the first half of 2011, the price of R134a remained high. In May, the price had risen to about 73,000 yuan per ton. The price of R134a is similar to that of R22. It was in a downward trend in the second half of 2011. By the end of 2011, it had fallen to more than 30,000 yuan per ton (see Figure 2).

“In the first half of 2011, the price of R134a went up all the way. The main reason was not that the cost increased, but that the market was in short supply.” Gong Wenjun of Sinochem Taicang Marketing Department analyzed the price trend of R134a in 2011 and said, “In the second half of 2011, with the domestic With the release of R134a's new production capacity, the market supply has been eased and the price drop is also reasonable."

It is understood that in the first half of 2011, due to the partial production capacity change or relocation of overseas R134a, coupled with the impact of the Japanese earthquake, Japan’s production of R134a was reduced, resulting in a decline in global production capacity, triggering a significant supply and demand gap for R134a. In the second half of the year, the new production capacity of Zhejiang Pujiang Baili Chemical Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Chemical was released one after another and the market supply capacity increased. At the same time, the demand for major R134a markets, such as autos, was depressed, causing R134a prices to decline.

“With the arrival of the R134a downstream automotive and home appliance market, R134a's price has rebounded and has now reached 40,000 yuan per ton.” Gong Wenjun said that prices will hardly return to 70,000 yuan per ton last year. s level. Taken together, there is a trend of oversupply in R134a in the future. “On the one hand, the growth rate of the main downstream market of R134a has slowed down. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of the domestic automobile sales market will fall back to less than 10%, and the central air-conditioning market will also begin to cool down from last May and will not experience rapid growth in the short term; On the one hand, the newly-built 30,000-tonne R134a production line of Juhua Group will be put into operation soon, and if this capacity is fully released, it will greatly increase the market supply.The new R134a production line, such as Sanmei Chemical, will also gradually enter the stable production period and the output will be On the whole, in 2012, the capacity of R134a will reach 200,000 tons, and the planned output will reach 110,000 to 120,000 tons."