The trade surplus turned negative, and China is expected to continue to stabilize the position of "export boss"

The General Administration of Customs announced the latest trade data of China on the 10th. Compared with the previous market expectation that there will be another trade deficit, the trade surplus recorded a record of US$5.35 billion. The market began to believe that despite the complexity of the export situation, China's trade began to gradually enter the normal growth range, and continue to stabilize the position of "export boss" as a high probability event.

The trade surplus turns positive to indicate GDP or higher than expected

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, exports in March increased by 8.9% year-on-year. The market expects export growth to fall back to around 7%. Imports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, lower than market expectations of 9%. As exports were higher than expected and imports were lower than expected, China’s trade surplus rose to 5.35 billion U.S. dollars in the month, changing the trade deficit in the previous two months.

Since the data from January to February is easily misunderstood due to the influence of the Spring Festival, it seems more accurate to comprehensively interpret the first quarter data in combination with the March situation. The trade surplus in the first quarter was 670 million US dollars. Due to the trade deficit in the first quarter of last year, the latest trade surplus data means that the contribution rate of net exports to GDP will turn positive. The GDP data to be released this Friday may also be higher than the market. expected.

As soon as the data was released, currencies such as the Australian dollar, which was highly correlated with China's trade, rose rapidly, indicating that the market believes that China's trade is gradually entering the normal growth range.

Zhang Hao, an economic analyst at ANZ China, said in a reporter that exports are better than expected, indicating that the external environment facing China is starting to improve. In the future, with the further improvement of external demand, China’s export performance is expected to gradually Above 10% growth level. Recently, China's export container price index has begun to show a significant increase, which also indicates that China's exports will gradually improve.

New changes in import and export structure show transformational effects

From the historical data, due to the characteristics of processing trade, the decline in imports often indicates a downturn in export. However, this signal function of imported data is now weakened.

Among the imported products in the first quarter, crude oil, iron ore, automobiles and soybeans accounted for the majority, indicating that China's imports began to shift to domestic demand growth. From the perspective of the proportion of ordinary trade imports and processing trade imports, ordinary trade has significantly exceeded the import of processing trade. "This is highly related to China's gradual economic restructuring." Zhang Hao expects, "If this trend continues, China's import growth rate will continue to grow at a faster rate and higher than export growth."

It can also be seen from the list of export commodities that the orders of traditional processing enterprises are in a downturn, and export enterprises with core technology are obviously optimistic.

In the first quarter, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 1.5 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of exports in the same period. Zhu Jianfang, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities (600030, shares), released a report saying that the export of technology and capital-intensive industries is more flexible. Looking ahead, general equipment, metal products, chemical raw materials, transportation equipment, electrical machinery Exports from other industries will recover faster, and the rebound will be greater than the growth rate of manufacturing exports and overall export growth.

Suzhou Lesley Plastic & Hardware Co., Ltd. mainly produces accessories for electric tools and environmentally friendly products. Zhang Shengxi, general manager of the company, told reporters that the overall sales of the export market has stabilized and is not worried about the export situation this year.

In the export of some labor-intensive products, the growth rate of textile and garment exports was in the range of 1.4%-3.9%. Some companies with independent core technologies or certified by international standards have generally reflected that current orders are better and optimistic about the future.

Xu Weimin, chairman of Shanghai Silk Group Co., Ltd. said frankly: "Foreign trade enterprises are walking on two legs. Price-sensitive enterprises will transfer production lines to the central and western regions by compressing costs. High-end enterprises will build their own brands, improve their technological content, and enhance their core competitiveness. If both roads are not working, then there is only one dead road."

The international situation is complicated and does not hinder China’s "export boss" status

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said recently that the euro zone "the economic outlook is mainly facing downside risks", making the European debt crisis reappear. This shows that the external environment in China is still relatively complicated.

The categorical data also showed that the economic recovery process in Europe and the United States showed signs of differentiation, the US economy recovered moderately, and the euro zone was affected by the double tightening effect of fiscal and bank credit. The economic recession was a high probability event. In the first quarter, the total bilateral trade volume between China and the United States was US$106.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. In the same period, the bilateral trade value between China and the EU was US$126.87 billion, an increase of only 2.6%.

Despite the gloom of the European debt crisis, some economists still said that this will not shake China's status as an "export boss". China is still the world's largest exporter, and it is difficult for Germany's foreign trade to surpass China.

Xu Weimin told reporters that for most foreign trade companies, the traditional markets of the United States, Japan and Europe account for about 70%. Today, the US economy is recovering well, orders are much more stable than last year; orders from Japan are weakening after the earthquake; European countries are very different, Greece and Spain are not satisfactory, and markets such as Germany and France are comparing. smooth. Overall, although the performance of traditional markets has declined, companies can make up for the lost market share of traditional markets by opening up emerging markets.

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