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The surge in rare earth prices has spurred all the speculative capitalists to worry about the bubble bursting
In the short period of four months since the beginning of the year, rare earth oxides and rare earth concentrates have all increased by more than 200%. This surge has caused many rare earth speculators to earn a lot of money, but it has also caused many speculators to start worrying that one day the bubble will burst. "Rare earth prices are still rising, and there are not selling goods waiting to rise, and the money for the goods can not be bought." Lao Wang, who is doing rare earth business in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, worried about the "Economic Information Daily" reporter, this bubble is a bit Big, what if it breaks? He raised the latest offer in his hand, which shows that the price of rare earth has continued to rise since May. Among them, on May 6, cerium oxide was 102,000 yuan/ton. The price of antimony oxide is 152,000 yuan / ton, the price of antimony oxide is 580,000 yuan / ton, and the price of antimony oxide is 680,000 yuan / ton. Among the prices of rare earth metals, the price of metal lanthanum is 160,000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal bismuth has also risen to 715,000 yuan / ton. In his view, the current hot money has not only hoarded rare earth ore, but extended to the entire product chain of rare earths. Whether it is the ever-high price of rare earths or the “selling goods†business, the “floating†of the whole industry has worried him. Rare earth is called "industrial vitamin" and is widely used in military, electronics and other industries. It is an important strategic mineral resource. China is a major producer of rare earths. In order to protect the rational development of rare earth resources, the government has successively issued a series of related policies in recent years. The rare earths have ended the history of “selling†and the prices have “swelled into the skyâ€. In fact, this year, rare earth oxides and rare earth concentrates have risen more than 200%. According to industry data, in the first quarter of 2011 , the price of rare earth soared, yttrium oxide increased by 342% compared with the beginning; yttrium oxide increased by 347%; yttrium oxide increased by 124%; yttrium oxide increased by 168%; yttrium oxide increased by 141%; yttrium oxide increased by 161%; Antimony oxide increased by 104%. “Rare earth is more like a concept, and the capital market can soar as long as it is in contact with rare earths.†Baotou Rare Earth told reporters. Taking Baotou Steel Rare Earth as an example, according to the company's first quarterly report, the operating income in the first quarter was 2.16 billion yuan, up 116.05% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 438 million yuan, up 276.96% year-on-year; the basic earnings per share was 0.599 yuan, an increase of 276.96%, the analysis agencies have given the "maintenance of 150 yuan target price unchanged" "strongly recommended" and other comments. It is worth noting that while the capital market is eager to embrace the concept of “rare earthâ€, the domestic rare earth price bubble is blowing more and more. According to an interview with the Economic Information Daily, since this year, hot money from all over the world has begun to enter the market to hoard rare earth ore and finished products, and the phenomenon of private mining and excavation has emerged in various places. On the other hand, driven by high price gaps at home and abroad, the trend of reselling rare earth export quotas has become increasingly rampant. Corresponding to this, the skyrocketing price has given birth to foreign rare earth mining heat. It is understood that since last year, countries including Japan, the United States, and Australia have begun to announce the re-development of rare earth resources. Among them, Australia's Mount Weld, the United States MountainPass, Canada's HoidasLake, Canada's Nechalacho, Australia's Dubbo, Australia's Nolans six mines are likely to be put into production in 2015. Under the influence of the double-factor of rare earth mining in foreign countries and the sudden rise of domestic rare earth price bubbles, the industry has also raised doubts about the current “high foam†sustainability of rare earths. Goldman's latest report predicts that as Western companies start new mines to compete with Chinese companies that currently dominate the market, there may be a situation of oversupply by 2013. Goldman Sachs believes that the supply shortage will reach the highest value of 18,734 tons this year, equivalent to 13.2% of the estimated demand of 141,524 tons. By 2013, the market will turn to supply slightly more than demand. In particular, the oversupply will rise to 5,860 tons in 2014, accounting for 3.2% of the estimated demand. “China's rare earth supply and demand is expected to reach a basic balance after 2015.†An analyst of Guotai Junan estimates that by 2015, global rare earth oxide production will reach 240,000 tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%. In terms of production share, foreign rare earth mining will rise to 40% to 50% of global production. Due to the decrease in foreign demand for rare earths in China, the internal and external price differentials caused by China's restrictions on exports will gradually fall. "It should be wary of the breakdown of the rare earth price bubble," said Heng Kun, chief analyst of Essence Securities, but he believes that the current relationship between supply and demand is unlikely to change. Because there are strict environmental restrictions on the development and smelting of rare earth mines abroad, there are uncertainties in several projects that are currently in preparation for production. With the expected changes in supply and demand, the price of rare earths will also be adjusted after the skyrocketing, and this signal will not appear until the same period of next year. "It is worth noting that because of the speculation of current speculative funds, the price of rare earth has deviated from the track's sharp rise. Once the expectation changes, the price may fall abnormally, which is very unfavorable to the industry," he said.