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The report said that China's economy will enter a period of rapid growth
Liu Yuanchun, deputy director of the Institute of Economics of Renmin University of China, believes that in 2012, China's macro economy has seen two new phenomena in the fall. First, the GDP growth rate fell below 8% for two consecutive quarters, but there was no large-scale unemployment. Second, the economic growth rate continued to fall, and fell below 7.5%, but there was no deflation, and the core CPI continued to remain at around 1%. This means that the economic downturn in this round is fundamentally different from the economic downturn in 1997-1998 and 2008-2009. He believes that taking into account the acceleration of income-consumption steps, the acceleration of new urbanization, the transformation of comparative advantages in industries and regions, the acceleration of industrialization in gradient transfer, and the re-release of demographic dividends under the full utilization of mid-level labor, 2013 The Chinese economy will surpass the "new normal" and the "second high-speed growth period" with the fermenting of the change effect, the cracking of the real estate dilemma and the slight improvement of the external environment. Based on the above judgments, according to the CMAFM model of China's macroeconomic analysis and forecasting model of Renmin University of China, the report believes that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2012 will rebound by about 1%, and the annual GDP growth rate will reach 8.0%, compared with 2011. The year fell by 1.3 percentage points. In 2013, China's economy will return to the transitional stage of economic expansion, and GDP growth will show a quarterly recovery. The actual growth rate for the whole year is expected to reach 9.3%. On the basis of analysis and forecast, the report believes that the future short-term macroeconomic policies should be relatively loose and positively oriented on the basis of strengthening the medium-term positioning, and carry out key breakthrough reforms in key areas such as income distribution and real estate.