The average daily output of crude steel rebounded slightly in the steel market consolidation pattern or broke

According to the latest data of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the country is estimated at 2.192 million tons in the second half of August, up by 0.05% from the previous month. The average daily output of crude steel in the upper, middle and lower thirds in August was above 2.11 million tons. It is estimated that the average daily output of crude steel in August will be 2,216,800 tons, a slight increase of 1.04% (up 0.7%) from the previous month's estimated value (actual daily output).

Due to the rebound of domestic steel prices in July and August, the profit of key steel enterprises in July turned losses into profit, coupled with the expectation of the “Golden September and Silver 10” traditional peak season, which enhanced the company's enthusiasm for expansion. Although the domestic steel market has been in a weak consolidation since late August, and the previous iron ore increase is significantly higher than the steel price, eroding corporate profits, but steel companies have not considered reducing production, increasing market worries. According to my steel network survey, the capacity utilization rate of 156 blast furnaces in Tangshan in August remained at 93%-94%, up from 90% in July.

Although the steel market has entered the “traditional peak season”, the trend of weak consolidation is still continuing. Although the PPI fell by 1.6% year-on-year in August, the decline narrowed for three consecutive months, indicating that the industrial economy continues to stabilize. At the same time, steel social inventories fell for the 25th consecutive week, indicating that there is still some demand in the market. However, as the terminal demand has not been increased, and the steel supply pressure has risen again, the steel market may not be able to do anything until the steel mill adjusts the ex-factory price.

According to my steel network survey statistics, as of September 6, 2013, the national social steel stocks in major cities were 14.49 million tons, down 1.4% from the previous week, and have been down for 25 consecutive weeks. At the same time, the inventory of key steel enterprises reached 12.45 million tons at the end of August, although it increased by 0.81% and 5.05% respectively compared with the end of last month and the same period of last year, but it is still at a low level since February.

The Bureau of Statistics tomorrow will release macroeconomic data such as fixed asset investment, real estate development investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods in August. At the same time, the new round of ex-factory prices of major domestic steel mills will also be announced one after another, which may break the current consolidation pattern and show shocks. situation. However, the rise in crude steel output will limit the height of the steel market in the later period. According to historical data, after domestic crude steel production reached a high level in the second quarter, it usually fell back in the third and fourth quarters. Considering the weak demand in the fourth quarter, crude steel production in September may not rise sharply, but it is hard to say a decline.

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