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Shale gas development or change the global political and economic system
The US oil and gas revolution has subverted the world pattern? The United States has always been one of the world's leading oil consumers and importers. The US demand for oil has made successive US presidents love and hate. It not only affects the global market, but also affects the US's own foreign policy. Currently, the United States consumes an average of 18.7 million barrels of oil a day, and about 20% of its energy needs to be imported. However, in the next decade, with the US domestic shale oil and gas revolution, the United States is likely to fundamentally change its dependence on imported oil. This change may reverse the world pattern and geopolitics. On November 12, 2012, the International Energy Agency's annual report on the World Energy Outlook predicted that the United States would replace Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer and achieve energy autonomy 10 years later. “By 2015, the United States will significantly surpass Russia to become the largest natural gas producer; by 2017, the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer,†said Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency. . Can the United States turn over in this energy revolution? Will the development of shale gas also trigger a new round of environmental problems? Shale Oil and Gas Revolution The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in its World Energy Outlook report that the recent recovery in oil and gas production and the shale gas revolution are fundamentally reshaping the US energy market. The United States is experiencing a oil boom, thanks in large part to high global prices and new technologies, including hydraulic hydraulic fracturing, which make commercial extraction of oil and gas in shale commercially viable. . The shale gas resources in the United States are abundant, and 48 states have shale gas resources. As early as 2000, the US conventional natural gas production can meet the consumption of about 12 years. The successful development of such unconventional oil and gas represented by shale gas has become an important breakthrough for US oil to reduce its dependence on foreign countries. Technologies such as hydraulic hydraulic fracturing have increased US shale gas production from 390 billion cubic feet in 2000 to 4.8 trillion cubic feet in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 47.7%. Today shale gas production has become quite 23% of total US natural gas production has greatly weakened US oil dependence on Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia. According to the US Energy Information Administration, from 2008 to 2011, US crude oil production increased by 14%, and natural gas production increased by about 10% from the same period of the previous year. The International Energy Agency believes that in the United States, the price of natural gas per million British thermal units (MBtu) driven by rising domestic demand will rise from $3.5/MBtu this year to $5.5/Mbtu by 2020. “In our forecast, 93% of the natural gas produced in the United States is still sufficient to meet domestic demand.†The Energy Agency said, “We expect that the scale of exports will not play a big role in US domestic pricing.†The recovery of oil and gas production is a good thing for the US economy, especially the trade deficit. Oil will also help create good high-paying jobs. Oil and gas are produced primarily in North Dakota, Wyoming, and Texas, and are the center of American oil. Shale gas has become a new favorite, not only profoundly affecting the natural gas market, but also beginning to change the development of some high-energy chemical industries in the United States. Natural gas is the main raw material for the production of nitrogen fertilizer. At present, Dow Chemical plans to open a new ethylene and propylene plant in the United States and is preparing to re-activate an ethylene cracking furnace. At the same time, the continued growth of shale gas means that electricity prices in the United States may be cheaper than in Europe, which will help other industries in the country to develop and help the United States create 600,000 jobs in the second decade. Of course, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency also said that the rise of shale oil and gas is still a relatively new phenomenon, and the current forecast is more optimistic. “We know very little about the light oil resources of tight reservoirs... If new resources are not discovered after 2020, and if prices are not as high as they are today, then we may also see Saudi Arabia’s return and Once again, become the first major oil producer," he explained. Affecting the world's pattern North America's new role in the world's energy market may result in some geopolitical changes. The most obvious is that the United States, which has achieved energy independence, will no longer defend the Hormuz Strait in the Middle East as it did before. At the same time, the direction of international oil trade will also change. By 2035, nearly 90% of the oil produced in the Middle East will be absorbed into Asia. The importance of supply routes from the Middle East to China and India will also be greatly enhanced. The International Energy Agency said it expects global energy demand to increase by more than a third by 2035, with China, India and the Middle East accounting for 60% of growth, far greater than the sharp decline in demand in developed economies. For the United States, domestic natural gas prices may fall, but for emerging economies such as China and India, the increase in oil demand will also drive the average import price of world oil. According to forecasts, by 2035, international oil prices will be from now on. It costs about $100 a barrel and rises to $125 a barrel. In fact, shortly after the report of the International Energy Agency, Qatar International Petroleum Company CEO Nasser said in an interview that the development of US energy is "an opportunity for us, and we are seriously considering it." Nasser analyzed that the US energy self-sufficiency is not an obstacle, but it will be a promotion to Qatar's oil and gas production. The booming US natural gas also means that Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter, can switch to export to the more profitable Asian market. Even if the United States becomes the world's largest oil producer, by 2035, the Middle East will continue to act as the "world oil depot." The production of OPEC countries represented by the Middle East will continue to rise. By 2035, OPEC's share of global oil production will increase from the current 42% to 50% by then. At the same time, BHP Billiton, the world's largest natural resources production group, said it is "carefully studying" business opportunities to transport shale gas from the US to Asia to meet the needs of its major customers, Japanese power generation companies. According to forecasts, the growth of the world population will increase the demand for global oil by 1/10, and by 2035, it will increase to 9.9 million barrels of oil per day. To some extent, the self-sufficiency of energy in the United States does not relieve the world of energy. “Reducing imports means that our strategic oil reserves may continue for a few weeks longer than it is now, but international oil prices are still soaring and damaging US consumers. In a globalized economy, if very high oil prices are weakened We will not be spared from the Chinese or Indian economy," said energy analyst David Goldwyn. Uncertainty On the other hand, these policy makers and prophets still ignore the potential benefits of energy security, economic growth and the environment. The current International Energy Agency (IEA) model hypothesis is based on the premise that future shale oil and gas will continue to be well produced. The future demand for shale wells is large, and the sustainability of this strategy is very large. No one can give a more reasonable answer. At the same time, the corresponding environmental issues will also cause controversy. At present, the hydraulic hydraulic fracturing method used for mining shale gas is to inject a large amount of water added with chemicals into the ground to create a gap in the formation where the gas is located, so as to extract gas. The water injected with the chemicals will be pumped back to the ground, placed in a temporary reservoir, reused after treatment, or discharged into underground and rivers. Among them, this chemical is likely to affect the surrounding water source. In December 2011, the US Environmental Protection Agency conducted a survey in Pavinia, Wyo., and published for the first time a report on the possible causal relationship between shale development and chemical substances contained in groundwater. The detected chemical substances include gasoline, diesel, toluene, ethylbenzene and the like. The EPA does not rule out the possibility that these chemical contaminations are caused by shale development water leaks. “The exploration, development and construction of shale gas will cause damage to the surface and vegetation. The excavation of the hydraulic fracturing fluid reservoir in shale gas wells makes the land occupation area much larger than that of conventional oil and gas wells. Shale In addition, there are noise pollution in gas drilling, hydraulic fracturing, well construction, etc. In addition, the exploitation of shale gas has caused a series of geological disasters such as earthquakes and mudslides in some parts of the United States.†Xiamen University China Energy Economics Lin Boqiang, director of the research center, wrote an article. In response, the US has also issued a new regulation for shale gas mining that will control air pollution caused by the use of hydraulic fracturing technology in shale gas mining. The regulation requires that by January 2015, all gas wells that use hydraulic fracturing for shale gas mining must be equipped with equipment to reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds and other harmful air pollutants such as benzene and n-hexane. . In contrast, several European countries are more cautious about shale gas. Due to concerns about environmental issues, countries such as France and Bulgaria have banned shale gas mining. According to Germany, it is not supported for shale gas production.