Post-holiday steel market may be "turned over"

According to monitoring, the average price of high-line 6.5mm HPB300 in the 24 major markets across the country is 3436 yuan/ton, which is the same as that in the previous trading day; the average price of rebar 20mm HRB400E in 24 major markets across the country is 3372 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. Cut 1 yuan/ton; the average price of rebar 20mm HRB400 in 24 major markets nationwide was 3342 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Analysts believe that the short-term macroeconomic policies face the limited benefit of the steel market. Moreover, the market can't overestimate the policy investment's demand for steel. If the latter steel companies still do not change the development strategy of extensive expansion, the steel industry will have difficulty. There is a real improvement.

Capacity: China Steel Association's latest data show that the average daily output of crude steel in the country was 2.28902 million tons in mid-April, which was a significant increase of 128,600 tons. The analysts believe that this data suddenly increased in volume, mainly due to the Association for Statistics. The data is close to the view that it is over-corrected by the valuation of non-key steel producers' production. In other words, the production statistics of non-emphasized steel enterprises have a large defect. The actual output is much higher than the statistical data; Increase production, but only 0.12%, almost negligible.

In terms of demand, the downstream steel used for cold rolling is concentrated in the automotive and home appliances industries. Since the beginning of this year, urbanization, increase in residents’ income, changes in consumption concepts and other factors have affected the prosperity of the automobile industry. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, In March, the situation of automobile production and sales was good, and monthly production and sales were highly innovative. From January to March, auto production and sales maintained a steady growth, passenger car growth slightly slower than the previous year, and the growth rate of commercial vehicles was higher than that of the previous year. Therefore, it is expected that the downstream demand will continue to maintain a steady release in the short term, but it remains to be seen whether the increase in output can be followed up.

Inventory: According to the inventory statistics, as of April 25, the total social steel inventories of the five major domestic major cities (rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium-thick steel) were 16.70.11 million tons, which was lower than the previous week. 657,800 tons.

Macro news, bailout* started: Nanning officially loosened restrictions on purchases. Yesterday evening, the Housing Authority of Nanning issued a document saying: In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region People's Government's Policies on Promoting the Opening and Development of the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone," in conjunction with the spirit of the "Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone Development and Promotion Program", From April 25, 2014, residents of the Beihai, Fangchenggang, Qinzhou, Yulin and Chongzuo cities in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone can purchase homes in Nanning City in accordance with the Nanning City resident's family policy.

According to international news, the European Central Bank's 15% reduction in 2013 is expected to expand into a turning point this year. According to the 2013 annual report released by the European Central Bank a few days ago, during the reporting period, the ECB’s total assets amounted to 174.2 billion euros (equivalent to 235.1 billion U.S. dollars), which is 15% above the 2012 figure of 279.8 billion U.S. dollars; meanwhile, the total assets of the Federal Reserve were 4 trillion U.S. dollars during the same period. The PBOC is even as high as 5 trillion US dollars.

In summary, the “Jin San Yin Si” peak season industry has basically failed, and the blink of an eye will soon enter the off-season sales season, and various bad news will gradually occupy a dominant position. If there is no absolute benefit, it is estimated that the steel market is difficult to stand up.