In the past two months, a group of listed companies such as Jiangsu Hongbao, Hengdian Dongci, Aerospace, Dongfang Risheng, and Aoke have overweighted or launched crystalline silicon wafers and solar cell projects, and the investment amount has reached nearly one billion or even tens. 100 million yuan. Correspondingly, European countries such as Germany and Italy have been severely suppressed by the previous European market demand as the main photovoltaic market in the world because of market saturation and the implementation of the policy of reducing PV subsidies. It is predicted that in 2011, the growth rate of the global photovoltaic market will narrow from 100% in 2010 to around 30%. Under this circumstance, are there any oversupply problems in the expansion of domestic enterprises' photovoltaic capacity? What are the development trends of the domestic photovoltaic industry? With these questions in mind, the reporter interviewed Meng Xianjun, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society. There is excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry China Energy News: Recently, a number of domestic companies competed to launch large-scale crystalline silicon wafers and solar cell projects, and it is predicted that the global PV market demand growth will be significantly narrowed next year. Does this indicate that there is a problem of excess capacity in the domestic photovoltaic industry? Meng Xianyi: At present, it seems that there is indeed a problem of overheating and surplus in China's photovoltaic industry and production capacity. It is predicted that China's PV production will reach 7-8 GW this year, and its production capacity has expanded to 15-20 GW, which is equivalent to the total consumption demand of the world. According to the photovoltaic industry development plan that has been basically established in China, the photovoltaic power generation target in 2020 is 20 million kilowatts, and 500,000 kilowatts will be added every year in the past two years, and will increase by 1 million kilowatts annually after 2012. On the other hand, our current production capacity has reached 15 million kilowatts per year, which is 30 times the current annual demand in the domestic market. Even so, domestic companies are still expanding their production capacity, which will face huge market risks. China Energy News: What caused the problem of excess capacity? Meng Xianyi: The cause of the current overcapacity of photovoltaic production capacity is, in the final analysis, our domestic companies have not determined their own production scale and production layout according to market demand. There are two specific manifestations. First, there is a lack of research and consideration of domestic industrial policies. China's "Renewable Energy Law" has a core content called "the overall goal", that is, the government will determine the market capacity and demand output within a certain period of time when it is doing industrial planning. The current situation is that under the premise that the government has made clear the future capacity of the domestic photovoltaic market, our photovoltaic companies did not take into account the market demand in the policy plan when they launched projects and planned production. Secondly, many of our companies now place their markets in foreign markets. At present, 96% of shipments are sold abroad. However, it should be noted that the international market will eventually saturate. In addition, companies in the United States, Japan, and Germany are also doing. It is impossible for domestic PV companies to dominate the global PV market. Enterprises should carefully study policies China Energy News: In your opinion, what will be the layout of foreign PV market in the future? Meng Xiankai: From the current and future sales of photovoltaic products, China's photovoltaic products will be mainly exported to Asia, Africa and other foreign markets. The European market has become saturated due to the support development of the governments of Germany, Italy and other countries in recent years and the downward trend of future subsidies. The US and Japan markets are not easy to enter because of trade protection and other reasons. In this case, our products have to be transferred to countries in Southeast Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe. However, due to the small land area and low level of development of these countries, the demand is not large. For this issue, many domestic companies lack enough clear-headed understanding that they are still blindly launching projects on the ground and engaging in capacity expansion. China Energy News: In order to solve the problem of overcapacity, does the relevant government department respond? What should companies do in the face of overcapacity and possible market risks? Meng Xianwei: In fact, the central authorities have long raised the issue of overcapacity and redundant construction. However, companies insist on doing so, which is also a commercial behavior of the market. The government can not forcefully stop it. However, the government also has corresponding countermeasures and methods, namely controlling the terminal price through on-grid electricity prices. Relevant government departments organized the bidding for photovoltaic power plant concessions to determine the lower bid-into-grid tariff. The company's profits will be controlled within a limited range. Once the company's production cost exceeds the on-grid tariff, it will lose money. Such enterprises can only lose money. There are two cases of dismounting or restructuring. The essential characteristics of renewable energy are policy promotion and government guidance. Enterprises should carefully study related policies and government intentions so that they can accurately grasp the overall status of the industry and future development trends, so as to avoid blindness and spontaneity in production, and avoiding should not be avoided. Market risk. Increasing the degree of industrial concentration is an inevitable trend China Energy News: In the past two years, the relevant government departments have launched two phases of the Golden Sun demonstration project. Can its purpose be seen as attracting PV companies to turn their attention to the domestic market? Meng Xiankai: The starting point for the relevant government departments to issue the relevant policies of the Golden Sun demonstration project is to gradually start the domestic solar photovoltaic power generation market, which is a major content of the National Energy Work Conference in January this year. At the time, the meeting proposed to develop photovoltaic industry to adhere to two principles. First, scientific planning, first, moderate development, and then a large-scale start-up of the domestic solar power market. The current series of policies that have been introduced, all reflect the "scientific planning, appropriate development. "in principle. According to the plan, the annual installed capacity of 500,000 kilowatts for the first few years, and 1 million kilowatts per year after 2012, will be slow and fast, and the national planning goal is very clear. At present, it seems that domestic demand does not have to absorb existing excess capacity. What we can do is to remind companies to pay attention. Of course, companies have their own ideas, most companies believe that by the end of the competition stage they can stand the test of the market and become the winner of market competition. This kind of heart is also understandable. Like a football game, competitors are rushing to win the championship. No one thinks that they will lose. Everyone agrees that under the market mechanism, the "rules of the game" for survival of the fittest through competition. China Energy News: What trends will China's photovoltaic industry face? Meng Xianjun: The degree of concentration of the domestic photovoltaic industry will be higher and higher, regardless of photovoltaic companies, or wind power companies, this is also an inevitable trend of the development of the world's high-tech industries. For example, only Boeing and Airbus can make large passenger planes in the world. China will have many difficulties in trying to squeeze into it. Another example is domestic wind power manufacturing companies. At present, 60% of the market share belongs to the three companies, Huarui, Goldwind, and Dongqi, which have the highest yields. 85% of the market share belongs to the top 10 companies with the highest output. This has already shown an increase in concentration. The higher the trend. The photovoltaic industry is bound to go this way, which is why many companies propose to do a complete industrial chain, so as to make the industry bigger and stronger. It can be foreseen that only those enterprises that have real strength, namely economic strength, technological strength and development strength, can finally gain a firm foothold, and many small and medium-sized enterprises will be constrained by the thin industrial chain, low capital, lack of core technology and production scale. For other reasons, it can only be merged or withdrawn from the photovoltaic market. This is the inevitable result of market competition.
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