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Among them, exports of 130.73 billion US dollars, the fourth highest monthly export value, an increase of 17.7%, the first time in 14 months to turn positive; imports 112.29 billion US dollars, a record monthly import value, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%.
Reason 1: The export of Asian market has soared. The political economist Lu, the senior economist of the Industrial Bank, believes that the market for China’s export growth rate exceeding the overall growth rate in December last year was in Asia, such as ASEAN, Japan, Hong Kong, India, etc. The growth rates of exports from the US and Europe were 11.0% and 10.8%, respectively, still lower than the overall growth rate.
He pointed out that in the case that exports to major traditional markets in Europe and the United States are still weak, even if the monthly export exceeds expectations, its stability and sustainability cannot be guaranteed. In addition, resource-based products and labor-intensive products are the main driving factors for exports exceeding expectations, while exports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products are relatively weak.
The political commissar of Lu believes that these all suggest that the stability and sustainability of strong export growth may not be high. Therefore, Industrial Bank’s expectation of 2010 annual export growth rate will remain unchanged at 11.5%.
Reason 2: Decline in the effective exchange rate of the Renminbi China's economic analyst Song Yu believes that the main reason for the strong export growth is the increase in export prices and the decline in the effective exchange rate of the RMB, in addition to the recovery in external demand. The decline in the effective exchange rate of the renminbi was due to the renminbi pegged to the US dollar and the continued weakness of the US dollar. The RMB trade-weighted index calculated by Goldman Sachs has fallen by 9% since March 2009, and has basically reached the level before the slowdown in export growth in July 2008.
The main reason for the strong growth in imports is strong exports (because China's relatively large part of imported goods are used to produce export goods), domestic demand growth continues to be strong and import prices are rising rapidly.
Song Yu believes that exceptionally strong exports are one of the main drivers of the acceleration of total demand growth over the past few months. As the output gap rapidly disappears, increasingly strong export growth will increase inflationary pressures.
Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan: China or Super Germany became the largest exporter In 2009, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports was US$ 2,207.27 billion, down 13.9% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 1,021.67 billion US dollars, down 16%; imports were 105.6 billion US dollars, down 11.2%. The annual trade surplus was US$196.07 billion, a decrease of 34.2%.
“In 2009, China’s foreign trade completed its established mission of securing the market and maintaining its share. It is expected that the export of the whole year is likely to surpass Germany as the world’s largest exporter,†said Zhong Shan, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China.
Benefiting from a stable economic environment In 2009, China's foreign trade import and export continued to fall sharply, with an average decline of more than 20% in the first half of the year. Although the decline in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, has narrowed significantly, the annual decline has still created the lowest point since the reform and opening up.
Since 2002, Germany has been the world's largest exporter for six consecutive years. Although its foreign trade figures for the whole year of 2009 have not yet been announced, the German Exporters Association and the Global Trade Information Service Company have confirmed that China has become the world's largest exporter.
Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that in addition to deepening the process of industrialization, the size of the population, and the high degree of industrial diversification, China’s macroeconomic stability is better than Germany’s in this crisis. This means that Chinese export companies enjoy a more stable environment than their competitors. At the same time, as demand for investment goods and luxury goods was slashed in the first place in the crisis, German exports, which are known for investment, suffered a greater contraction.
The impact of the crisis will last for two to three years. However, industry insiders expect that the impact of the international financial crisis on China's foreign trade will continue for two to three years, which means that China will not be able to resume its trade in 2008 until around 2011.
Last month's import and export exceeded expectations. This year's export growth rate may reach 11.5%.
According to the trade data released by the General Administration of Customs in December last year, the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of imports and exports have greatly exceeded market expectations.