[Interpretation] Power "13th Five-Year" photovoltaic distributed 60 million kilowatts to usher in opportunities

In 2016, it has entered November, and before the end of the year, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" was finally released.
We see that reducing coal and increasing clean energy will continue. Policies to limit the speed and volume of coal-fired power development will also continue. According to the plan, coal-fired power will cancel and postpone the coal-fired power construction project of more than 150 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity will strive to be controlled within 1.1 billion kilowatts.
At present, the installed capacity of thermal power of 6000 kW and above has reached 1.03 billion kilowatts, and the difficulty of future regulation is not small.
Clean energy will develop substantially. In 2020, wind power will reach 210 million kilowatts and solar energy will be 110 million kilowatts. Wind power and solar energy have a certain degree of reduction compared with the previously rumored data, but the target is still high.
The photovoltaics will be tilted towards the distribution. Among the 110 million kilowatts of PV installed targets, the distribution will reach more than 60 million, which means that the distribution is welcoming. Below, we have sorted out the details of the increase and decrease.
Increase clean energy! The development speed of wind power is slowing down, and distributed photovoltaics are the key. According to the plan, the national wind power installed capacity will reach 210 million kilowatts in 2020, including about 5 million kilowatts of offshore wind power. The installed capacity of solar power generation has reached 110 million kilowatts, including more than 60 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics and 5 million kilowatts of solar thermal power.
Previously, at the opening ceremony of the PV conference, Zhu Ming, director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, mentioned that it is estimated that the total capacity of wind power and photovoltaic grid-connected networks should reach at least 400 million kilowatts by 2020, and the target in the new planning is reduced. 80 million kilowatts.
By the end of 2015, the cumulative grid connection of wind power reached 129 million kilowatts. At the previous wind energy conference, the leaders of the Energy Bureau expected to reach 150 million kilowatts this year. According to the plan, there will be about 60 million kilowatts of space in the next few years of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, with an average annual increase of 15 million kilowatts. Compared with the previous two years, the absolute number of new installed capacity has decreased. In 2015, the newly installed wind power installed capacity was 32 million kilowatts, and in 2014, 20 million kilowatts was added. According to this calculation, the wind power development in the next year of the “13th Five-Year Plan” will be moderate. Slow down.
Han Shui, chief engineer of the National Energy Administration, said in response to a reporter's question that the layout of wind power and photovoltaics should be optimized in the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Some areas that abandon wind and abandon electricity should be developed in an orderly manner and appropriately scaled down and paced. . The wind and light rejection rate are controlled at a reasonable level within 5%.
According to the National Energy Administration, in the first half of this year, the national wind power abandonment rate was as high as 21%. The abandoned wind rate in severe wind-stricken areas such as Gansu and Xinjiang was even close to 50%. In the first half of the year, the national wind power abandonment wind was 32.3 billion kWh.
The abandoned light in the severely abandoned areas in the northwestern region has become more serious, and the light-recession rate in the northwestern provinces has exceeded 30%. According to the data provided by the State Grid, the total abandoned photoelectric output of the State Grid Corporation in the first half of the year was 3.305 billion kWh, an increase of 91% year-on-year, and the proportion of abandoned light was 12.1%, up 2.05 percentage points year-on-year.

Clean energy development is also facing the challenge of optimization. In the “13th Five-Year Plan” of photovoltaics, the previous target was 150 million kilowatts, and 110 million kilowatts were proposed in the plan.
By the end of 2015, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was 43.18 million kilowatts, including 37.12 million kilowatts of ground power plants and distributed 6.06 million kilowatts. According to the statistics of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, due to the impact of the “630” rushing tide, the newly installed PV installed capacity exceeded 20GW in the first half of the year. Recently, Wang Bohua, the secretary general of the association, predicted that the installed capacity of photovoltaics may be nearly 30GW this year.
43GW plus nearly 30GW this year, by the end of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics may exceed 70GW. If it is calculated according to the planned 110 million kilowatts, it will only be divided into 10 million kilowatts in the remaining years. It is worth noting that the new PV installation will be tilted towards the distribution.
The plan proposes that by 2020, distributed photovoltaics will reach more than 60 million kilowatts. The amount of distributed PV installed capacity has reached 6.06 million kilowatts by the end of 2015. This shows that the distributed period will usher in a big opportunity during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
Earlier, Liang Zhipeng, the new energy department of the National Energy Administration, also mentioned in his speech that the first place in the “13th Five-Year Plan” is to vigorously develop the application of distributed photovoltaics. Only in this way, the development space of the ground power station will be squeezed.
But don't forget, this year the Energy Bureau alone approved 5.5GW, and the first batch of photovoltaic poverty alleviation was 2.98 million kilowatts. Future ground power stations may break through the planning indicators.
At the end of last year, the National Energy Administration issued a "Draft for the 13th Five-Year Development Plan for Solar Energy Utilization" to the relevant departments of the Energy Promotion Bureau of the Provincial Development and Reform Commission. It mentioned that at the end of 2020, the total installed capacity of solar thermal power generation should reach 10 million kilowatts. This plan will reduce the target to 5 million kilowatts. It is said that the main reason for the target downgrade is that the official believes that the 10 million kilowatt installation target is too idealistic.
Coal-fired installed capacity is controlled within 1.1 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 55% of the total
The plan clearly stated that the coal-fired power planning and construction should be strictly controlled and the construction progress of the coal-fired power base should be reasonably controlled. Continuing the policy on coal-fired power this year, since April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau have successively issued brakes on coal-fired power.
As of the end of June 2016, the installed capacity of coal-fired power above the scale has reached 920 million kilowatts. At the end of September, the installed capacity of thermal power of 6000 kilowatts and above nationwide was 1.03 billion kilowatts. According to previous statistics, as of January 2016, the proposed coal-fired power projects under construction in various places reached 190 million kilowatts. The target of coal-fired power generation is controlled within 1.1 billion kilowatts, which is still somewhat difficult.
Huang Xuenong, director of the Energy Bureau of the Energy Bureau, admits that the target of 1.1 billion kilowatts is not easy. According to the projects that have already started, approved and under construction, by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, if it is not controlled, it will reach more than 1.25 billion.
However, he believes that this goal is proposed because the Energy Bureau believes that 1.1 billion can guarantee the supply and demand of electricity and control the utilization hours of coal-fired power at a reasonable level. Coal power to cancel and postpone coal power construction projects of more than 150 million kilowatts is based on the calculation.
Regarding the control measures, he mentioned a few points for Huang Xuenong:
First, the risk warning mechanism for coal power planning and construction, red, yellow, and green warnings, the red area must not be rebuilt and approved.
The second is to adopt three measures of “abolishing a batch, slowing down a batch of batches, and slowly building a batch”.
The third is to eliminate backward production capacity. In the past few years, the government has done a lot of work in this area. At present, basically all of the eliminations have been eliminated. The rest are hard bones, but this thing has to be done. According to the situation of the underdeveloped units in operation, the government set a target of 20 million kilowatts. Through these measures, we strive to control the installed capacity of coal power in the year of 2020 at 1.1 billion.
The reduction of 150 million kilowatts of coal-fired power projects means that it is necessary to reduce 30 million kilowatts per year, which is also an important task.