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Ren Haoning, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that China's coal import situation continued to continue its high-level operation in 2009, but the growth rate of imported coal has begun to slow down, even though China's monthly coal import volume reached a record in December 2010. 17.34 million tons, an increase of 25% from the previous month, but the year-on-year growth rate further dropped to 6.34%. This shows that the main reason for the surge in coal imports in December is that China's coal market is affected by seasonal factors, and demand is rising cyclically, so coal imports will be enlarged.
Then, since December, due to the impact of the Australian floods and the snowstorms in Europe, international coal prices have continued to rise sharply. Taking the Newcastle Port Coal Price Index in Australia, the coal price index for the port on December 3 was $111.24/ton. By December 31, the coal price index of the port had risen to $128.5/ton, even in mid-January. It is rising to around $136/ton. The sharp rise in international coal prices has further widened the gap with domestic coal prices. At present, the international coal to the factory price of some southern power plants has been higher than the domestic coal to the factory price of 100 yuan / ton.
In view of the sharp increase in international coal prices and the trend of slower growth of China's coal imports, China's coal import growth rate may further slow this year. In view of the high coal imports in China in December last year and the current high international coal prices, the amount of domestically imported coal may decline. Zhang Yulin, research director of China Investment Consulting, pointed out that the explosive growth of China's coal imports in 2009 was mainly due to the fact that international coal prices were at the bottom and more competitive than China's domestic coal prices. Then, in the case of a sharp rise in international coal prices, the slowdown in China’s coal imports will be a rational choice for the market.
According to the “2010-2015 China Coal Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report†issued by China Investment Consulting, as the global economy gradually recovers, the international coal market has begun to pick up, and the performance of the international coal market in 2010 can already be seen. The speed of recovery is not slow. Under such circumstances, China's coal consumer enterprises will treat coal imports more rationally.
International coal prices continue to rise, domestic coal imports may decline
Recently, preliminary statistics released by China Customs show that China's coal imports reached 17.34 million tons in December 2010, creating the largest coal import in a single month in 2010, but the year-on-year growth rate has further dropped to 6.14%. As international coal prices continue to rise, domestic coal imports may decline in January and February 2011.