In the first half of 2013, the overall recovery of steel prices saw a steady progress

According to reports, the iron and steel industry has experienced two days of icy fire in the past two years. The 4 trillion yuan stimulus in the financial crisis in 2008 made the steel industry experience a peak. However, with the withdrawal of stimulus policies, it quickly slipped to the bottom. Since September 2011, steel prices have unilaterally fell, and the decline has stopped in the second half of this year, but the market is still bleak. According to Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmian Iron and Steel Network, in the first half of 2013, with the implementation of the new economic policy, steel prices are expected to rebound.

At the end of December, the steel survey results showed that the steel industry was generally stable. More than 85% of the respondents believed that past sales were in line with expectations. For future sales, more than 90% of the survey respondents remained neutral and believed that terminal demand would not be there by the end of the year. Big fluctuations. In addition, 30% of the respondents believe that the next year will be better than this year, and hope that the government's "urbanization" plan can stimulate the demand for steel. Regarding the impact of urbanization on the industry, Luo Baihui believes that the increase in urbanization rate will take a long time, urbanization is a long process, and urbanization is conducive to the recovery of the industry; but we cannot expect that urbanization will have a large impact on the industry in the short term. In the mid-term, he is optimistic about the steel mold special steel.

Compared with the first half of the previous month, the output has not changed much. At the same time, the capacity utilization rate has remained above 85%. When asked whether it will expand production capacity next year, the survey respondents stated that the current overcapacity problem still exists and will not be considered.

Inventory has little change because output and terminal demand are relatively stable. 80% of the respondents believe that the current inventory is at a low level from the whole year, and the inventory pressure is not great. The overall inventory level in December has declined from November.

In terms of raw materials, iron ore has risen sharply in the past two weeks. Most steel plants need to make up the stock to ensure normal production. Therefore, the overall cost of steel has risen, which has squeezed the profits of manufacturers to a certain extent.

At the end of the year, the iron and steel industry basically had no recruitment and redundancy plans. Individual survey respondents stated that in order to expand the direct supply channels, the recruitment of sales personnel was increased. Most of the survey respondents stated that because of the state-owned enterprises, personnel changes will not be too great. Occasionally, Reducing staff through early retirement.

The willingness of ordering by traders has improved compared to before, but the financial pressure at the end of the year is relatively large, so the overall change is not significant. The will of the “winter bank” has been restored, but it has not yet been implemented.

According to the data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, the industry's profit rate in the first three quarters of this year was only 0.2%. Compared with the industry's average profit level of 6%, the steel industry is already considered as a waste industry by many people.

In the analysis of commodity prices, Xu Yinbo, an analyst at Treasure Island Steel, believes that steel prices will recover in the coming year.

Xu Yongbo: In 2013, we expect a slow recovery of demand as a whole. Of course, these demands are mainly domestic demand. The new government may introduce some supportive policies such as the construction of affordable housing, urbanization, and high value-added high-tech industries. Will pull domestic demand. Therefore, prices will rise next year, and the high point should appear in the second quarter.

But he also reminded that although the price will rise, the rate should not be too high, and the first half of the market is better than the second half. The reason for this expectation is that the two major factors constraining the price of steel in our country still exist. First of all, it is difficult to reduce the cost. Iron ore and coke are the most important raw materials for steel production. Prices will continue to rise steadily in the coming year. The situation. In addition, excess capacity will also have a bearing on steel prices.

Xu Yongbo: For China's current crude steel output exceeding 700 million tons, once your demand rises and the price rises, when the price is higher than the cost, the steel plant's production enthusiasm is very high, so that the market supply will increase substantially. Put the price down again.

Maybe it is the fear of being overwhelmed by the continuous fall of the overcast. The first-line steel trade companies are not afraid to be optimistic about the market for the coming year. Liang Shi, general manager of the Southern Branch of Jilin Tonggang International Trade Co., Ltd., said that the days are better than bad, but also have to see whether real estate and exports can be restored.

Liang Shi: This piece has a lot to do with it, as export orders have been decreasing throughout 2012. We are exposed to the entire downstream users. They are making refrigerator boards and air conditioners for the chassis boards, and the substantive needs of these end-users are restored. Not obvious.

A steel trader in Tianjin, who declined to be named, admitted that in the new year, he was most concerned about whether the restrictions imposed by financial regulators on steel trading companies would be relaxed; in addition, the steel trade business appeared to be operating. The amount is large, but the contribution of tax revenue is not much, and local governments have already "requested" them.

Steel traders: In the circulation field, our industry is an industry that occupies a large amount of funds, but the actual profits are very small. That is to say, in terms of numbers, our turnover and the actual flow of water are relatively large, but the actual The contribution of taxation is small, one (government) is not supportive, and the other is the pressure on taxation is relatively great for us, and we all have tax burden.