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High growth will stop the construction machinery industry from entering the turning point?
The high-growth myth of China's construction machinery industry since 2009 has reversed in April this year. Whether this will become the turning point of the industry, the industry is very concerned about this. The main products fell by 30% in April. In March of this year, the output of excavators, excavating earthmoving machinery and compaction machinery in construction machinery increased by more than 50% year-on-year. Even for concrete machinery with a slower growth rate, the output growth rate is more than 30%. But by April, the situation suddenly turned sharply. It is understood that major construction machinery products including excavators, loaders, bulldozers and cranes have seen a decline of around 30% in April. Specifically, excavator sales fell by 38.79% in April after a record high in March. According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators increased by 47.4% from January to April, and the sales volume in January-March increased by 59.8% year-on-year, and that in January-February was 88.4%. The trend of drastic sales of excavators falling sharply month by month is very obvious. The total sales of loaders in April decreased by 2.86% year-on-year and 28.27% quarter-on-quarter. The total sales volume of the loader industry in April fell by a quarter-on-quarter, the largest decline since April in 2001. The sales of bulldozers in April increased by 1.19% year-on-year and 32.81% quarter-on-quarter. From the sales of several major construction machinery companies in China, there have also been different declines. In April, Liugong loader sales fell by 35.21% year-on-year, Xiagong fell 6.62%, and Longgong increased slightly by 3.80%. The statistics of the China Machinery Industry Federation also show that the production of the construction machinery industry slowed down significantly from January to April. Production from January to April increased by 52.16% year-on-year, but fell by more than 6 percentage points from February to March. From the production growth rate of the construction machinery industry in the first four months, the growth rate of production in the construction machinery industry in April fell rapidly, which was 7.26 and 8.26 percentage points lower than that in February and March respectively, while the construction machinery industry dedicated to construction materials showed steady growth. . The decline in demand is the main reason For the reasons, Lu Ying, director of the Statistics Department of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said that the decline in data in April was partly due to the early overdraft of corporate sales in the first quarter. Many companies in the construction machinery industry have certain expectations for the completion of the economic indicators in the first quarter. Therefore, the indicators in the first quarter report are relatively high. Starting in April, companies will slowly digest these indicators. The data in April fell, and there were also factors in which corporate indicators returned to normal. In this regard, Chen Zhengli, former secretary general of the Excavation Branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, also expressed similar views. He said: "I have studied the statistics of the industry for more than ten years and found one of them. The construction machinery industry has a light and peak season every year. After this period, the data will rise. Especially when the industry The performance is mainly concentrated in the first quarter, the data decline in April, it is very normal." So he expected that by May, the data may be more pessimistic. But by August and September, the data should be better. Experts generally believe that the decline in market demand is the main reason. It is understood that the suspension or construction of major projects in some countries has affected the purchase of equipment this year. Some construction machinery companies have reflected that in the case of high-speed rail projects, construction projects that are not started this year will no longer be built, and some projects under construction are in a slow-build phase. In addition, some construction machinery companies have begun to cut prices. All of this shows that this year's demand is not as strong as last year. In the past few years, construction machinery products have become investment products to some extent, and the recent increase in bank interest rates has curbed some consumption and, to a certain extent, reduced demand. It is understood that companies and individuals who purchase excavators and loaders can generally recover their investment within three years. When the bank's interest rate is low, investors can make maximum use of bank leverage to obtain excess returns. However, the increase in bank interest rates and the tightening of lending by banks have resulted in the suppression of the purchase of construction machinery products by these investors. Lu Ying said that at least in the surrounding areas outside Beijing's Fourth Ring Road, there are at least one dozen construction machinery equipment leasing companies that specialize in investing in construction machinery products. Before the monetary policy was tightened, these leasing companies often recovered their costs after renting the excavator for one year. Experts in the industry did not express too much surprise for the decline in data in April. "Overall, this year's trend is getting closer and closer to our expectations," said Han Xuesong, president of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association. Lu Ying also said: "Unlimited demand is impossible, and endless growth is impossible. This year's situation is basically in line with our expected results." What is the future trend? What will happen to the industry trend this year and in the future? Yan Jun, president of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, believes that the construction machinery industry will maintain a growth rate of around 20% this year and maintain a growth rate of 17% in the next five years. Lu Ying said: "The overall increase in sales of construction machinery still has room for decline, especially for excavators. However, some small excavators entering the catalogue of agricultural machinery purchases will be different." Although the construction machinery industry in April has a ring, Compared with other sub-sectors in the machinery industry, the year-on-year growth rate of the construction machinery industry is still considerable. According to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, the production of construction machinery industry increased by 58.64% from January to March, and the production growth rate in January-April was still above 50%. In the growth rate of output of the 12 industries in the machinery industry from January to April, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry still ranked first, 15 percentage points higher than the 36.67% growth rate of the second-ranking machine tool industry, and 27.71 than the machinery industry. The average growth rate of % is almost doubled. For the year-round production of excavators this year, Chen Zhengli said optimistically: "In 2010, the output of China's excavators was 160,000 units. This year's output is definitely higher than last year, and it is likely to reach 200,000 units." Regardless of the future industry What is the trend? One thing that needs attention is that users of the construction machinery industry have increased their arrears this year. This may increase the normal operation of the company and the difficulty of profitability. According to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to March, the accounts receivable of the national machinery industry enterprises was 1,908.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.48%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points over the January-February (29.39%) increase. In March, the accounts receivable amounted to 92.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.32%.