"Electricity shortage" effect is still not clear, funds boost coke volume

"Electricity shortage" spreads, the price of the entire coal sector is just around the corner yesterday, Dalian coke ** price also appeared in the recent rare rise in volume, an increase of 1.45%, a change in the pre-sale deall state of the situation, the capital admission to pull up The situation is clear. Judging from the positions, Yongan, the leader of Zhejiang, became the first major player. Industry sources said that the coke industry will further eliminate backward production capacity and other factors to stimulate the rise of coke, but from the fundamental point of view, coke out of the big market is unlikely.

However, experts have many differences as to how the recent “electricity shortage” has played a role in charcoal. It is understood that the shortage of electricity will limit the start-up of steel mills and suppress the sales of coke. There may be some negative impact on coke. On the other hand, thermal coal will further squeeze out its capacity and generate some support from coke. Therefore, the geometry of the “electricity shortage” remains to be seen.

The increase in coke volume driven by funds was affected by the continued rebound of crude oil and other commodities outside the overnight market. Yesterday, the 1109 coke opened slightly higher in the morning, and then it rallied sharply after the shock. It maintained a strong pattern throughout the day and rose to a maximum of 2,338 yuan/ton until the close. It rose 1.45% or 33 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that yesterday, the volume of coke was significantly enlarged from the previous day to 30078 hands; the number of positions increased by 1140 to 9430 hands.

The coke has been in a situation of shrinkage adjustment recently. Apart from the wave of upswing on the next day, the market has fallen into a long period of adjustment and fell below the 2300 mark since May 6. The wave of yesterday’s rise regained the 2,300 yuan mark. However, the late fall caused the Japanese line to leave a long shadow, and many of the determinations at the last moment of the attack were slightly insufficient.

The coke on the Bohai Sea Commodity Exchange was in shock and fell back. It touched a high of 2176 in early trading. After a slight adjustment, the trend oscillated and dropped. After midday, the downtrend fell further and finally closed at 2148.

“The cause of the rise in coke is not obvious. It may be related to the elimination of outdated production capacity,” said Huang Huiwen of Shanghai’s mid-term analyst. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced the elimination of backward production capacity. In 2011, the outdated production capacity of 18.7 million tons of coke will be eliminated. It stimulated the enthusiasm for funds to do more coke. "But this rise is mainly driven by funds."

Judging from the position, Zhejiang Yongan ** Masukura 211 more than a single hand, becoming the number one ranking, Shenyin Wanguo **, Galaxy and South China ** have more than a single admission. With the help of the news, the intention of raising the price is more obvious. However, it remains to be seen whether this trend can continue.

"Electricity shortage" is a double-edged sword that all circles of society are talking about "electricity shortage". How does this affect the price of coke? People in the industry believe that simply classifying this as positive is not comprehensive, and it needs to be viewed from two perspectives.

"The biggest impact of electricity shortage on coal is transportation," said Huang Huiwen. Because thermal coal is the main raw material for power generation, thermal coal will squeeze most of its capacity recently, resulting in limited transportation of coking coal, which will increase accordingly. The cost of coke. "Because coke is not a big consumer of electricity, the path to higher costs is more twisted."

Once the lack of electricity continues to spread, the output of steel mills will be affected and the demand for coke will be greatly suppressed. From this perspective, the "electricity shortage" will also play a negative role in the price of coke.

According to industry insiders, from the mid- to long-term perspective, supported by factors such as firm raw material prices and the recovery of downstream construction steel products, coking prices still have further upward momentum. But overall, the current coke spot market is relatively stable. It is very difficult to get out of a big market just by relying on funds.

Baocheng ** said that recently learned from the major cities of steel stocks, the current inventory has dropped sharply for 8 consecutive weeks, indicating that the demand for steel, especially building materials, steel is still strong, and after entering in May the steel industry will be due to national limited power With the policy, there has been a decline in output, which has further eased the pressure of overcapacity. Historical experience shows that coking coal demand will be negatively affected in the initial period, and coke prices will continue to oscillate. However, under the action of late steel prices and limited production of coking coal, coke prices have also come out of a wave of upward trend, but the price increase is lower than that of steel.