Coal exports grow for two consecutive months

In 2011, the Nanning Coal Ordering Conference officially ended on January 9. The adjustment and consolidation of the nation's key coal contracts has not yet been completed, but coal exports have begun to heat up.

According to the data provided by the General Administration of Customs, China's coal exports in November and December last year were 1.279 million tons and 1.45 million tons, respectively, which has maintained a two-month sequential increase.

Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry at China Investment Advisors, predicts that the East Asian region has entered a period of winter heating, and that the demand for coal has increased. In addition, the recent flooding in Australia has made the supply of Asian coal market tight. "It may push up China's coal export volume this year." China's coal exports may rise further in the month."

In 2010, China exported a total of 19.03 million tons of coal, which was a year-on-year drop of 15% compared to 2009, but it has eased from the 50.7% decline in exports in 2009.

“The export of coking coal is mainly affected by the flooding in Australia, which has led to an increase in the volume, while the coking coal export growth may continue until after the Spring Festival.” Coal expert Huang Teng told reporters that due to Australia’s supply including coking coal and thermal coal With the reduction in quantity, the international coal market is gradually warming up, which indirectly will stimulate domestic thermal coal exports.

With December 2010 as the point of time, almost all the coal mines in Queensland, Australia's main coal producing area, were shut down due to flooding. With this alone, global coking coal supply will drop by 17%.

"It is expected that there will be a surplus supply of coal this year, and prices will be subject to certain restrictions. What can be done in addition to exports?" asked the person in charge of the transportation and sales department of a coal company.

The “12th Five-Year Plan” has set the coal production capacity cap at 3.7 billion tons, but according to the current coal enterprise plan, there is a great possibility that it will be broken. Overcapacity will likely continue to magnify. In addition, although the National Development and Reform Commission's coal price limit is only for key contract coal, it is limited to strict national price controls this year, and coal prices will certainly bring a curse.

In early 2008 in Queensland, due to two consecutive months of flooding, the daily price of coking coal and thermal coal in Japan and Australia reached record highs of US$300/tonne and US$125/tonne, respectively, which has tripled. On January 7th, the NEWC thermal coal price index in Newcastle, Australia continued to rise for six consecutive weeks, reaching US$129.90 per ton.

Song Zhichen believed that with the recovery of the global economy, coal demand in the traditional coal-importing countries such as South Korea and Japan in East Asia began to gradually recover. Under the restraint of relevant policies, domestic coal exports also maintained a downward trend, but the rate of decline was similar. Compared to last year, it has improved. "For some time to come, China's coal exports are likely to remain at a fairly stable low level."

At the end of December of last year, the Ministry of Commerce determined that the first batch of coal export quota for 2011 was 18 million tons, accounting for about half of the total annual quota. This figure is 29.5% lower than the 25.5 million tons of the first batch of coal export quotas in 2010. However, in fact, exports did not even use up the first batch of coal export quotas in 2010.

Lin Huijiang, manager of the International Trade Department of Guangxi Wantong International Logistics Co., Ltd., told the reporter that South Korea, Japan, and the Taiwan region accounted for 94.7% of China's coal export volume in 2009. Although the domestic coal price is higher than that of foreign coal, it is superior to the advantage of delivery. The period is short. Therefore, prior to the resumption of production by Australian coal companies, some orders will be transferred to Chinese coal companies, thereby boosting export growth.

“But due to the limitation of export quotas, the annual export will not grow too much, but the key is to put pressure on domestic coal prices in the first quarter.” Lin Huijiang said that at present, the supply of South African coal and Russian coal is almost completed The amount of foreign coal that can be supplied to foreign countries is already small.