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China's demand declines or the iron ore market falls into the longest bear market
According to the Australian Daily, as the indicator of China's economic growth and Australia's largest source of export revenue, the iron ore market is likely to fall into the longest bear market in 20 years. The world's three major mining giants Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have captured 2/3 of the iron ore marine transportation market, and their investment in new iron ore mines in Brazil and Australia reached US$47 billion (US$46 billion). As China's demand declines, the volume of goods shipped to the world is likely to hit its lowest level since 1990. BHP Billiton's chief trade officer, Alberto Calderon, pointed out at a conference in Canberra last month: "We are now feeling the end of the first phase of China's economic development, and the demand for iron ore in the Chinese market has now decreased. More than half.†On February 16, 2011, the price per ton of iron ore climbed to the peak of $191.9, but according to the forecast of the former Asia Pacific chief economist of Morgan Stanley, the price of iron ore may be in the middle of next year. It fell to the lowest point of $50 per ton, which will be the lowest point never reached after signing the contract price of $47 in 2006. It is estimated that Australia will export US iron ore to US$65 billion this year. Experts expect iron ore prices to fall, and iron ore producers have lost 29% of their market share since February of this year. According to a survey of five well-known analysts by Bloomberg, the average price per ton of iron ore in 2017 may be $96, well below the average price of $167.6 last year. The survey results show that the price of iron ore will fall for four consecutive years starting in 2014. According to data released by Merrill Lynch, the last three years of iron ore fell during the 1992-1994 period. Hans Kunnen, chief economist at Westpac, reluctantly said: "The shrinking iron ore price has caused us to suffer a lot, and we expect Australia's economic growth to slow down."