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According to the data provided by the two provinces, Shanxi Province expects that the gap in power supply may reach 5 million to 6 million kilowatts at the end of the year, with the gap accounting for 20% to 25% of total electricity demand; Henan Province said that the province's average daily coal consumption is It is close to 300,000 tons and the daily average supply gap is 70,000 tons.
Behind the shackles of power shortages in coal-fired power provinces, the macro level is the lag of the reform of the electricity price system, and the reality is the sawing of both coal and electricity. On December 13, coal expert Huang Teng explained that in the context of high coal prices Under the electricity company does not want to buy coal at a high price, coal enterprises are expected to maintain high profits, and the road to market reform of thermal coal is still very long.
On December 10, the National Bureau of Statistics announced macroeconomic data for November, with November CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year to a 28-month high. The National Development and Reform Commission, which has been working hard to promote the marketization of coal prices, is forced to intervene in coal-fired power negotiations because of inflationary pressures as it moves to its fifth year.
On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Connection of Coal Production and Transportation in 2011" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), requiring the price of key thermal coal contracts in 2011 to remain unchanged in the previous year, and must not be disguised in any form. .
Li Xiangyang, general manager of China Resources Fuel Company, reminded reporters that at present, the loss of electricity companies has exceeded 50%. The intention of the National Development and Reform Commission is to reduce the pressure on CPI, and also help electric enterprises to reduce losses.
However, Li Xiangyang particularly emphasized that coal price regulation will ultimately work. "The key is to supervise the implementation of key contract coal."
Coal major provinces also lack electricity
Near the end of the year, but the power shortage in the coal province of Shanxi, no relief.
As the temperature in winter approaches, Shanxi's power load continues to climb. According to the data provided by the Shanxi Electric Power Company, the province's largest electricity load has reached 17.32 million kilowatts, but the power supply is obviously insufficient. The maximum power gap is more than 3.8 million kilowatts, and the gap at the end of the year will be nearly twice that of the current data. There are many.
“Shanxi has always been one of the provinces with the most power transmission to the whole country, and shoulders the heavy responsibility of transmitting electricity to other provinces and cities across the country.†A person in charge of Shanxi Electric Power Company revealed that in the first three quarters of this year, Shanxi’s accumulated external power supply reached more than 50.6 billion kWh. , an increase of 17%. Although Shanxi is facing a severe power shortage, the external power transmission still exceeds one third of the province's power generation.
“Taking the thermal power plant in Zhangzhou as an example, it has 25 billion kWh of electricity per year, but more than 80% of it is sent to Beijing through ultra-high voltage transmission lines.†The person in charge said that if it will be delivered to the province One quarter of the stay in Shanxi, Shanxi will not have the problem of lack of electricity.
In Henan, another major coal province, the current province's thermal coal inventory has rapidly declined from 3.84 million tons at the beginning of November to 2.65 million tons on December 4, which is far below the warning line of 3.5 million tons of the lowest thermal coal inventory in winter. And there is a supply gap of 70,000 tons per day.
"This year's supply situation is unprecedented," said a person from the Henan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology. As the "double festival" approached and winter snow and fog increased, the production and transportation of coal would face many unpredictable factors. .
It is reported that in early December, Henan's coal inventory has been far below the winter minimum coal inventory warning line, there are 18 power plants with less than three days of coal storage, accounting for 50% of the province's thermal power installed capacity. For this reason, the Henan Provincial Government convened a coal-electricity coordination meeting on December 29 to cope with the severe situation of a sharp decline in thermal coal stocks.
The same example happened in Shanxi. Take Datang Taiyuan No. 2 Thermal Power Plant as an example. Since the beginning of this year, the plant has had four coal shortages. The root cause lies in the 1.5 million tons of coal supply contract signed with coal enterprises at the beginning of the year. Ton.
In contrast, Shanxi and Henan are both major domestic coal provinces. Taking Shanxi as an example, from January to October this year, Shanxi's coal production was 592 million tons, an increase of 102 million tons year-on-year, and coal supply was sufficient.
A person in charge of Shanxi Niangziguan Power Plant revealed that the price of thermal coal has increased by about 120 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year, while the on-grid price of thermal power plants has not increased. "In this case, the contract coal cannot be cashed; spot coal The price is high, the more you buy, the more you lose."
According to Huang Teng's analysis, the on-grid price of thermal power plants in Shanxi is obviously low, which was caused by the “continuation of policies formulated in the era of planned economyâ€. At present, Shanxi's electricity price is mostly around 0.4 yuan / kWh, while Guangdong's on-grid electricity price is more than 0.6 yuan / kWh, "high electricity prices can withstand high coal prices, coal enterprises are of course willing to sell more coal to southern power companies."
In the context of sufficient coal supply, coal prices are too high, which is the root cause of coal shortage in power plants.
The National Development and Reform Commission issued a "limit price"
According to the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on December 10, the total coal connection volume in the country continued to increase slightly. Among them, the volume of coal transportation was 769 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The National Development and Reform Commission clearly stated in the notice that in 2011, the price of the key thermal coal contract will remain unchanged in the previous year, and the price of the key coal price will not change in any form.
"Because this year the government mandated that coal contracts should not increase in price, this year's coal production and transportation needs to work smoothly, and will last for 25 days, ending at the end of December." The head of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association said.
It is worth noting that on December 15, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the “Guiding Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission on Improving the Needs for the Coordination of Coal Production and Transportationâ€, terminating the annual coal order fair and replacing it with “network summaryâ€.
A year later, the NDRC re-interrupted the coal price, which means that the market-oriented reform of the original coal-fired coal “self-consistent and negotiated orders†has encountered tremendous pressure.
"Under CPI pressure, coal enterprises must also bear certain social responsibilities." Miao Jichang, marketing director of Shanxi Coal Transportation and Marketing Corporation, told reporters that the National Development and Reform Commission's approach is to consider the overall situation, the stability of coal prices and electricity prices, Controlling inflation and the future economic direction are crucial.
The "Notice" on December 10 confirmed the "no increase in price" of key contract coals in 2011 in the form of documents. In fact, since the beginning of December, the National Development and Reform Commission has revealed the willingness to intervene in coal prices on different occasions.
On December 1, Cao Changqing, Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a symposium on the production and operation of some coal and electric power enterprises in Shanxi Province that coal enterprises should increase production, ensure supply, and stabilize coal prices while ensuring safety. The price of contracted coal should remain unchanged in 2010 and must not be increased in any form."
The 2010 key coal contract price is about 570 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan / ton to 40 yuan / ton compared with 2009. However, the current actual market price of coal (pit price + intermediate link cost) has risen to around 800 yuan / ton. According to UBS's forecast, in 2011, the domestic coal market price will be raised by 10% to 900 yuan per ton. In 2012, it will be further raised to 960 yuan per ton.
"The price limit will mainly affect the state-owned key coal enterprises." Huang Teng pointed out that the national NDRC's price limit has no binding force on the market price, mainly to set an upper limit for the contract coal price. But the reality is. Since the market price is much higher than the contract price, coal companies often reduce the supply of key contract coal for production and safety reasons, so that power generation companies can only purchase high-priced market coal.
The person in charge of the aforementioned Niangziguan Power Plant also said that since the market coal and key contract coal currently have a price difference of more than 200 yuan, the key contract coals signed by Shenhua, China Coal and Tongmei are all above 30 million tons, "if you increase 500 Tens of tons of contract coal will cost about 10 billion yuan. Will they be willing?"
"Cost rate" problem
At present, the proportion of contracted coal purchases between power plants and coal companies is about 50%. That is to say, with the exception of a few power plants, most of the power plants still need 50% of the coal to be purchased from the market.
The bigger problem is that in the context of the continuous rise in the price of “market coalâ€, this 50% “contract coal†is actually difficult to cash.
“In fact, the redemption rate of key contract coal can be 60%, which is already very good.†A person in charge of the fuel department of the five major power groups told reporters that if they can achieve a 60% redemption rate, the power companies will not be like now. This has led to large losses in large areas.
According to statistics from China Electricity Council, since 2003, China's coal prices have continued to rise. Qinhuangdao's 5,500 kcal coal prices have risen more than 150%, while sales price increases have only increased by 32%.
A person in charge of Henan Province told reporters that since this year, Henan's 5,500 kcal coal, which does not include tax, has risen by 150 yuan/ton, up 20%, making Henan electric enterprises lose money throughout the industry.
Large-scale power companies, including the five major groups, are also under pressure from rising coal prices. As of the end of October, among the more than 400 thermal power plants owned by the five major power generation groups, there were more than 200 loss-making power plants with a loss of 50%. In the past two months, the price of the five major power generation groups has exceeded 10 billion yuan due to the price increase of more than 100 yuan/ton.
Coal market pricing was blocked, and once again "returned to the government guidance price." In this regard, coal industry expert Li Chaolin believes that the government's mandatory price limit will distort the marketization of the coal market.
However, in Huang Teng's view, the NDRC's request for no price increase is only the current need to curb inflation. In the long run, the general direction of establishing a pricing mechanism for the thermal coal market has not changed. "But it should be noted that the high coal price stems from the monopoly of coal enterprises, the monopoly of the coal-producing province and the monopoly of the railway transportation sector. These three reforms must be carried out."
In his view, systematic reforms can reduce coal prices and create real market pricing.
"Because of the planned electricity price, the marketization of thermal coal prices will take several years to complete." The head of the aforementioned China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association also said that the planning means should be continued until the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. Relieve, the reform of the marketization of thermal coal will be smoother.
Before the coal-electricity negotiation, the intervention of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Coal
On the occasion of the opening of the coal-fired power negotiations in 2011, Shanxi, Henan and other major coal provinces have issued power shortage warnings.