Average annual price of non-ferrous metals next year may be better than this year

With the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the implementation of the 12th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan and the implementation of the Energy Saving Products Huimin Project, the consumer demand for non-ferrous metals, especially non-ferrous metal intensive processing products, will further increase. Stimulated by the monetary easing policies of various countries, the non-ferrous metal prices in the international market will continue to exhibit a volatile pattern, but the average annual price may be better than this year, and business difficulties will be eased.

On the 28th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued the 2012 report on China's industrial economic operation. The report pointed out that with the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the implementation of the 12th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan and the implementation of the Energy Saving Products Huimin Project, The consumption demand for metal, especially non-ferrous metal intensive processing products, will further increase. It is expected that the overall operating environment of the non-ferrous metal industry will be better than this year, and the production will show a steady growth trend. The efficiency situation has improved, but the recovery momentum is still insufficient.

According to the report, from November to November, the non-ferrous metal industry's added value increased by 14% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of the same period of last year. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 3,384 million tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down 1.9 percentage points from the same period of last year, of which electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum output increased by 7.9% and 12.3% respectively. The profit and loss situation has dropped sharply, and the aluminum smelting industry has suffered a total loss. From January to October, the profit realized was 147.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.2%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the first three quarters; the main business income was 3.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 percentage points; among them, the profit margin of smelting and rolling processing industries. This was 2.78%, down 1.3% year-on-year, of which the aluminum smelting industry (including alumina companies) suffered a net loss of 1.35 billion yuan; the company suffered a loss of 19.2%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises increased 1.5 times year-on-year.

The direct reason for the decline in non-ferrous industry profits is that the prices of non-ferrous metals in domestic and foreign markets have declined, while the financial costs such as rising prices of electricity and energy and interest expenses have increased substantially. The underlying reason is that due to the overcapacity of some products, the company owns mine-owned raw materials. There are structural problems such as low proportion of self-contained energy and fewer high value-added products with competitive advantages. The investment structure has improved. From January to November, the fixed metal investment of the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 17.7% year-on-year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, of which the smelting project decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the investment in mining and rolling processing industry increased by 17.9% and 41.7% respectively. It is expected that the overall operating environment next year may be better than this year.

With the acceleration of infrastructure investment and the implementation of the 12th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Plan and the implementation of the Energy Saving Products Huimin Project, the consumer demand for non-ferrous metals, especially non-ferrous metal intensive processing products, will further increase. Stimulated by the monetary easing policies of various countries, the non-ferrous metal prices in the international market will continue to exhibit a volatile pattern, but the average annual price may be better than this year, and business difficulties will be eased. However, the exit of home appliances to the countryside, the overcapacity of some low-end products, the pressure to eliminate outdated production capacity, and the instability of the international financial market will also restrict the development of the non-ferrous metal industry next year. Next year, the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry is basically stable, and structural adjustment will be further strengthened.