Wait-and-see mood is getting stronger

The northern region has entered the winter season, and the north and south cargoes have caused the supply pressure in the southern market to gradually appear. The long products market has been affected by seasonal factors, and the sheet metal market has gradually improved in an environment where the manufacturing industry has gradually stabilized, but the market price of sheet metal continues to rise. The wait-and-see mood of downstream users is getting stronger, and it is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will maintain a slight fluctuation and consolidation.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2012.11.19-11.23) domestic steel market price will fluctuate, the long products market will continue to decline, and the plate market prices will rise and fall. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 149.3 points. The average price of steel will be around 3,880 yuan, and the average fluctuation will be around 20-30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 165.1 points, slightly falling by about 0.3 points; The Lange Steel Plate Index is expected to fluctuate around 130.7 points, with a slight adjustment of around 0.7 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.11.19-11.23) domestic long products market prices will continue to decline, while the plate market prices will rise and fall; raw material market prices will vary. Iron ore market prices will steadily decline by 10 yuan, coke market prices will rise slightly by 20-30 yuan, scrap market prices will decline by 50 yuan, billet market prices will decline slightly 10-30 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market fluctuates slightly this week. Week 46 of 2012 (11.12-11.16) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 150.0 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.28% and a decrease of 13.73% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 165.4 points, a week-on-month decrease of 0.38%, a decrease of 16.77% from the same period of last year, and the LGMI sheet price index was 131.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.29% and a decrease of 8.67% from the same period of last year.

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 standard varieties monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the prices of main steel products in the 46th week of 2012 (11.12-11.16) fluctuate slightly, compared with last week, the prices rose. Slightly reduced, the flat variety slightly decreased, and the falling variety drastically increased. Of these, 14 species rose, 3 reductions from the previous week; 9 were flat, 5 reductions from the previous week; 21 varieties fell, an increase of 8 species from the previous week. The price of domestic steel raw materials market was mixed, the market price of iron ore remained stable, the coke market price rose by RMB 30-70, the market price of scrap was mixed, and the billet market price fell by RMB 40-80.

2. This week, the national steel society stock deceleration slightly accelerates the current national steel social inventory decline for 5 consecutive weeks, which has accelerated the decline in building materials inventory, plate inventory decline rate has accelerated slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on November 16th, steel society stocks in 29 key cities nationwide were 11.6949 million tons, a decrease of 314,700 tons from the previous week. From the point of view of the sub-variety: the country's social inventory of wire rods was 968,100 tons, down 3.61% from the previous week; the rebar social inventory was 4,436,000 tons, down 1.91% from last week; the inventory of coiled eggs was 261,700 tons. Compared with the previous week, it decreased by 1.06%; the hot rolled coil social inventory was 3.3342 million tons, down 3.26% from last week; the cold coiled coil social inventory was 1.5615 million tons, down 1.54% from last week; the plate social inventory The amount was 1,955,500 tons, down 3.61% from the previous week.

3. Steel market turbulence consolidation this week in 2012 Week 46 (11.12-11.16) Rebar market turbulence consolidation, but the overall price center of gravity is slowly moving up. The closing price of this week was 3 points higher than last week. The market is still in a slow rising market. The main contract this week was 1.003 million contracts, a decrease of 671.32 million lots. In the warehouse receipts that lighten up, most of the outflows were empty.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

Industrial added value above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year in October

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year (the growth rate of the following added value is the actual growth rate of deducting price factors), which is 0.4% faster than that in September. From a month-on-month perspective, the value added of industries above designated size increased by 0.81% from the previous month in October. From January to October, the industrial added value of above-scale industries increased by 10.0% year-on-year. In terms of sub-industries, in October, the value added of 41 major categories of industries all increased year-on-year. Among them, the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 11.0%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.6%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 5.9%, and the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries grew. 6.1%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 7.9%, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 10.1%, electricity, heat production and supply industry increased by 4.7%.

National fixed asset investment increased by 20.7% from January to October

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 292,542 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first nine months. Among them, fixed asset investment rose by 1.94% month-on-month in October.

At the end of October, M2 increased by 14.1% year-on-year and 0.7% from the end of last month

According to statistics from the Central Bank, at the end of October, the country’s broad money (M2) balance was 93.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, 0.7 percentage points lower than the end of last month. In terms of **, the current month’s ***** increased by RMB 505.2 billion, a deceleration of RMB 81.6 billion year-on-year, and foreign currency** increased by $20.4 billion in the same month. In the morning, the central bank also announced the statistics report on social statistics in October 2012. According to preliminary statistics, the scale of social ties in January-October 2012 was 13.02 trillion yuan, which was 2.42 trillion yuan more than the same period of last year. In October, the size of society was 1.29 trillion yuan, which was 50.3 billion yuan more than the same period of last year.

In October, the electricity consumption of the entire society increased by 39.8 billion kWh from the previous month to 3.2%.

According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, in October, the entire society used 398 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, showing a significant rebound. From January to October, the country’s entire society used 4,081,800,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year. In terms of classification, the primary industry's electricity consumption was 8.7 billion kWh, a decrease of 0.7%; the secondary industry's electricity consumption was 3002.9 billion kWh, an increase of 3.2%; the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 473.1 billion kWh, an increase of 11.2%.

Raw material supply:

In October, iron ore imports fell sharply. According to customs statistics, iron ore was imported by 64.43 million tons in October, a decrease of 8.58 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 13% year-on-year. The average price of imported iron ore in October was US$104.9/ton, which was US$11/ton lower than September; from January to October, China imported 60.12 million tons, up 8.9% year-on-year; the average price of iron ore imported in the previous October was US$132.3. / Ton, down 20.8%.

Industry News:

In October, the export of steel products fell slightly, according to customs statistics. In October, the export of steel was 4.84 million tons, which was a decrease of 310,000 tons compared with September, and an increase of 26.7% compared with the same period of last year. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 45.78 million tons, an increase of 11.8% over the same period last year. In October, China imported 1.03 million tons of steel, which was 170,000 tons less than that in September and 14.2% lower than the same period of last year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 11.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. In the first 10 months, the billet basically had no exit. In October, 20,000 tons of billet was imported, and imports totaled 290,000 tons during the January-October period, a decrease of 39.9% from the same period last year. In October, 56.43 million tons of iron ore was imported, which was a decrease of 8.58 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 13% year-on-year.

In October, the daily average production of crude steel declined slightly, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In October, China's crude steel production reached 59.096 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, which was an increase of 1.15 million tons from the September output and an increase of 1.98% month on month; October crude steel The average daily output reached 1,906,300 tons, which is a decrease of 25,200 tons compared with September and a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month. From January to October, China's crude steel production reached 602.225 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. In October, China's steel production reached 81.81 million tons, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year; from January to October, China's cumulative steel production reached 789,510 tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year. In October, China’s pig iron production reached 53.982 million tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year; from January to October, China’s cumulative pig iron production was 5,557,600,000 tons, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year.

EU anti-dumping investigation of stainless steel pipe weldments on China On November 10, 2012, the European Union filed an anti-dumping investigation on stainless steel pipe weldments originating in China and Taiwan, China, on the application of the European Union's Stainless Steel Weldment Protection Committee. The products involved in the customs code is 73072310 and 73072390. The European Union initially selects the United States as a replacement for calculating the normal value of products involved in the case in China. The interested parties must provide comments within 10 days from the date of this announcement. Exporters wishing to obtain market economy status must publish the results of the self-s Submit an application for a complete market economy status within 20 days from the date of release of the decision not to issue a sample survey.

European Commission's anti-dumping investigation on cold-rolled stainless steel seamless pipes in China was postponed. On November 15, the website of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued an announcement deciding to export to China Customs Union on November 25, 2011, initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. The investigation of the anti-dumping investigation of cold-rolled stainless steel seamless pipes within the customs territory was postponed for 6 months.

Shandong Province will launch comprehensive steel industry emission reduction The Shandong Provincial People's Government recently issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing Monitoring and Assessment Plans for Major Pollutant Emission Reductions by Iron and Steel Enterprises in Shandong Province. According to the plan, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, Shandong Province will fully implement reductions in the steel industry. All iron and steel enterprises must install automatic monitoring equipment for major pollutants in water and gas. For iron and steel enterprises listed on the provincial control list, the municipal environmental protection departments must carry out monitoring monitoring every quarter. By 2015, the province's ton of steel dioxide* Emissions decreased by 47.4% over 2009. The plan also pointed out that all localities must organize the implementation of the iron and steel industry backward production capacity elimination plan, and formulate a sub-annual structural adjustment plan to ensure that the backward production capacity is eliminated in accordance with national requirements. We will establish and improve the outdated production capacity elimination mechanism for the steel industry, and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry through the implementation of comprehensive measures such as capital subsidies, major reductions, regional approvals, and public announcements. Strict implementation of the national iron and steel industry policy, non-compliance with the approval of steel projects, and strengthen supervision and management, and strictly forbid enterprises to use technological transformation, transformation and upgrading of nominal capacity, on the scale.

The thread of the previous period fell on the 16th, the main contract fell 0.16%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,643 yuan/ton in the morning on the 16th, and then the price showed a slight downward trend in the intraday volatility throughout the day. The lowest was 3,635 yuan per ton for the whole day, and the highest was 3,658 yuan per ton to close at 3,643 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous trading day (15th), the settlement price fell by RMB 6/t, with 1,045,096 transactions. The number of positions opened was 1,002,998 contracts, a decrease of 54,282 contracts.

Downstream demand:

From January to October, the investment in real estate development in the country totaled 5762.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the investment in real estate development in the country totaled 5,769,900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, which was the same as the growth rate from January to September. Among them, residential investment was 3,974.0 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.3 percentage points, accounting for 68.9% of the total investment in real estate development. From January to October, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 538.149 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the first nine months. Among them, the residential construction area was 403.203 million square meters, an increase of 10.9%. The area of ​​new housing starts was 1,476.92 million square meters, down by 8.5%, and the decline was down by 0.1 percentage point from January to September. Among them, the newly-started residential area was 1,0839.96 million square meters, down by 12.7%. The area of ​​completed buildings was 58.317 million square meters, an increase of 17.3%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.9%. Among them, the area of ​​residential buildings completed was 476.92 million square meters, an increase of 17.1%.

In October, auto production and sales decreased slightly from the cumulative sales volume. According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association, in October, 1.587 million vehicles were produced, a month-on-month decrease of 4.48%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.07%; sales were 1.660 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73%, and year-on-year growth. 5.32%. From January to October, automobile production and sales amounted to 15,7201,000 units and 1,570,700 units, an increase of 4.56% and 3.56% year-on-year respectively. Compared with the previous September, output growth slowed down by 0.42 percentage points, and sales growth rate increased by 0.19 percentage points.

Ministry of Finance: Home Appliances to the Countryside Policy Ends as Scheduled The Ministry of Finance recently issued a notice that on January 31, 2013, the national policy on home appliances going to the countryside will be fully implemented and will no longer enjoy the financial subsidy policy. The notice states that on November 30, 2012, the policies for home appliances to rural areas in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Dalian, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing, and Shaanxi (hereinafter referred to as “provincial cities”) ended as scheduled. January 31, 2013: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Fujian, Xiamen, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Xinjiang The Production and Construction Corps (hereinafter referred to as “Twenty-two Provinces and Cities”) policy on home appliances to rural areas came to an end as planned. Since December 1, 2012, the original subsidy targets of ten provinces and cities have purchased home appliances to rural areas and no longer enjoy the financial subsidy policy; since February 1, 2013, the province has 22 provinces. The city’s original subsidy objects purchased home appliances to the countryside and no longer enjoy financial subsidies.