Ten photovoltaics' "confessions"

Although China's photovoltaic industry in 1978 had the earliest swayer of Ningbo Solar, the most exciting story was that it began 10 years ago and showed a blowout situation six years ago. After Wuxi Suntech landed in the New York Stock Exchange in 2005, China's photovoltaic industry began a bright journey. But there is always passion in the past, and after the passion is often the real manifestation. Is there a bubble in China's PV industry? When will this bubble burst? After experiencing the European debt crisis and “double opposition”, this is the first attempt by the representatives of 10 photovoltaic companies in the photovoltaic industry to explore the gains and losses, joys and worries of China's PV industry development in the form of “repentance books”. . 1. Shi Zhengrong Jiangsu Yangzhongren The leader of the solar photovoltaic industry, the former richest man in China. Undergraduate from the global leader of the solar photovoltaic industry, Martin Green, a technology entrepreneur. It is the first person in the world to overcome silicon-based thin film photovoltaic cells. Nickname "the sun god" 2. Ma Xuelu Hebei Baoding People Director of the High-tech Zone (Electric Valley) Management Committee, deputy director of the China Wind Energy Association. Yingli Group "No. 2" 3. Peng Xiaofeng Jiangxi Anfu People In July 2005, the company invested 500 million yuan to build a photovoltaic company, LDK, and successfully led the company in June 2007. 4. Qi Baofang Hebei Ningjin Ren Ningjin Electric Power Co., born in 1996, founded Jinglong Group, the “focus person” of previous World PV Industry Conference 5. Suweili Baoding, Hebei The first batch of experts in the field of solar photovoltaic industry, once served as deputy general manager of Tianwei Yingli, founded Tianhua Sunshine in 2005. 6. Sun Zhian Henan Anyang People In April 2009, he founded the chairman of Phoenix Photovoltaic. Pursue a three-step strategy of purchasing equipment, introducing technology, and recruiting talent. 7. Li Hejun Guangdong Dongyuan People President of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce. Founded in 1994, Beijing Huarui Investment Group (formerly Hanergy Holdings), repeatedly asked the rich list 8. He Xianhan, Zhejiang, Ningbo, returned overseas Chinese, president of Japan Ferrotec Co., Ltd. (China), founded Shanghai Hanhong in March 2005, technology business businessman 9. Wang Hui Henan People Every photovoltaic company has a unique skill. Wang Hui founded Yanqi Photovoltaic in 2009 and devoted himself to researching copper indium gallium selenide thin film solar cells. 10. Gao Jifan, a native of Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, came into the solar industry. Founded in 1992, Changzhou Trina Solar, in December 2006 led Trina Solar to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange. They are the first-line traders in the industry, and most of them have witnessed the rise and fall of the photovoltaic industry. They understand the meaning of exporting a big country, using a small country, producing a big country, and making a small profitable country better than anyone else. What is certain is that the era of high gross profit in the photovoltaic industry is over, and the double-strike between the European debt crisis and the “double-reverse” is worse. But even so, the industry will surely usher in another big boom in the next few years, including of course the problems behind prosperity. A new era in the photovoltaic industry has already been shadowed and blurred. Ma Xuelu: Whose game is PV in the next decade? From the birth of the photovoltaic industry is the entrepreneurial enterprising spirit, the subsidy support of local governments and the favor of the capital market. It is even described as a savior of this energy-poor era along with new energy industries such as wind and nuclear. 33 years ago, solar energy in Japan and Japan took the lead in opening the door to the photovoltaic industry. After that, it was more than twenty years of silence. Until 2005, Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. landed on the New York Stock Exchange, and its chairman, Shi Zhengrong, wore the crown of China's new richest man. Since the beginning of this year, the photovoltaic industry, like the Internet industry of the past, has produced one hero after another and their legendary story of wealth creation at an astounding speed. A large number of photovoltaic production bases with high-hanging new energy billboards highlight their distinctive identities at various major high-speed entrances. Myths are constantly upgrading. Six or seven years ago, the sudden burst of demand in the Chinese market caused global polysilicon prices to skyrocket. In order to ensure the grain, domestic enterprises have signed polysilicon supply agreements with foreign countries in a panic. This kind of agreement between Han and Hungarians and the pro-style not only eroded the profits of Chinese enterprises, but China was also held hostage by relying on others for food and life. Such an agreement provides a fast-growing source of food for growing Chinese companies. However, when the financial crisis hit in 2008, “and pro” tied the hands of Chinese PV companies. In less than a year, the price of polysilicon dropped sharply from nearly $500 per kilogram to $55. The sudden changes in the market have made this industry that relies on “hormone” grow up. At least 3/4 of the PV companies have closed down in the financial crisis, and there are not a few companies that have collapsed due to the signing of the polysilicon supply agreement. Also, six or seven years ago, due to the huge gap in the polysilicon market, domestic enterprises flocked to the upstream of the industry, and the entry into this industry was the most difficult and costly part of the competition. The polysilicon industry has become the hottest emerging industry in the country. In 2004, there was only one polysilicon manufacturer in China. In 2005, China's first 300-ton polysilicon production project was completed and put into operation in Luoyang, which became the first year of China's polysilicon industry and the first year of China's photovoltaic industry. After only three years, the total output of China's polysilicon reached more than 1,000 tons. China began to surpass Europe and Japan and became the world's largest producer of solar cells. In 2008, the growth rate of polysilicon was as high as 300.8%. Pandora's Box contains greed, nothingness, jealousy, jealousy, pain... Of course, there is hope in the end. On the road of photovoltaic industry development, it has been carrying pollution, key technical equipment, market demand, raw materials, and vicious competition and the three problems of low quality and low gross profit. For these questions, the words of industry experts and entrepreneurs are vocal. Wang Zhanguo, a polysilicon expert and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: "China's existing technology cannot completely solve the problem of by-product recycling caused by polysilicon production." He Wei, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: "Some state-owned enterprises are not advanced in technology or even backward. In view of this, domestic companies' research and development work in this field is not solid enough.” Cui Rongqiang, former director of the Shanghai Jiaotong University Solar Energy Research Institute, said: “It is good to pay attention to photovoltaic pollution, but if the international community is worried about environmental protection, they should go deep into the front line. Chinese companies solve problems and open up technology, instead of cracking down on China's photovoltaic industry.” Gao Hongling, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, said: “There is no in-depth analysis of development factors such as technology, resources, talents, markets and competitive advantages and disadvantages. In the case of continuous expansion of production capacity, it is definitely not in line with the needs of the scientific development concept, and should be done with caution.” Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech, said: “You can see Foxconn’s gross profit level. In fact, this industry The industry is still comparable Ma Xuelu, chief strategy officer of Yingli, said: "The era of high gross profit in the photovoltaic industry is over. This is a challenge. Enterprises can't solve problems by speculation. They can only rely on one trick and one hand, grasping technology and grasping talents in a down-to-earth manner. Grab the product.” It cannot be said that China’s photovoltaic industry can be described as a wall outside the wall. China's current solar power generation accounts for only 5% of the world's total, which is closely related to the government's failure to implement solar power online prices. This kind of asymmetry seems to be a great irony compared with the official statistics in recent years that "the export volume of China's photovoltaic products accounts for about 90% of the world". The price of photoelectric access is uncertain, and the domestic market is difficult to weather in one day. China has been trying to open up the domestic market by imitating foreign rooftop plans. The roof plan was first introduced in Germany. Germany installed solar power systems on the roofs of 2,000 residential houses and achieved good results. Later, the Netherlands and Japan also launched similar plans. Today, 500,000 homes in Japan have installed solar roof systems. And as early as six years ago, the government ended its subsidy for the roof system, because Japan's photovoltaic industry was fully equipped to compete with other power sources. The secret of Japan's success lies in their continued public investment in the development and subsequent deployment of solar technology. In China, taking the financial center Shanghai as an example, in line with the World Expo, Shanghai in 2003 prepared a project called “100,000 roof plan”, which initially planned the solar power generation capacity of each household to 3000 watts. The full commissioning of the project will generate 300,000 kilowatts of electricity. Some people even imagine that the solar roof plan will be popularized after 30 years. However, after a few years, there was only one hundred thousand roofs left. Shanghai is not an isolated case. At present, only Jiangsu Province has issued a fixed electricity price policy for photovoltaic power generation, which stipulates that the price of the network in 2009-2011 is 2.15 yuan / kWh, 1.7 yuan / kWh and 1.4 yuan / kWh. All other provinces and cities have not fixed the price of photovoltaic power generation. In fact, PV companies are full of embarrassment for optoelectronic access, they have been pursuing the same level of photovoltaic and thermal power costs. Two years ago, 13 PV companies, including Suntech and Saiwei, signed the Luoyang Declaration in Luoyang, vowing to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation to 1 yuan/kWh in 2012. This year, companies have claimed that the cost of power generation has dropped to 0.8 yuan / kWh. The main theme of the future of the photovoltaic industry has been shadowed and blurred. Wang Zhanguo, an authoritative expert in polysilicon and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that the future is dominated by thin-film solar energy. He Wei said: "Concentrating solar power will become a substitute for crystalline silicon and thin film batteries." Thin film solar energy is expected to significantly reduce material consumption and cost, which is bound to be the future direction of the photovoltaic industry, but it is difficult to achieve industrialization now. . At least in the next 10 years, the leading role of the photovoltaic industry will be crystalline silicon solar energy. The thin film solar energy has to be dominated by four points: the conversion efficiency reaches 30%; the cost is low; the raw materials are abundant; the environment is friendly and pollution-free. However, it is difficult for Chinese PV companies to achieve these four points, especially the conversion efficiency is enough to kill all enterprises. In early November 2010, Wuxi Suntech launched a new crystalline silicon battery production plant in Shanghai. The factory was originally used by Suntech to produce thin-film batteries. Suntech had planned to produce 400MW in 2010. However, in 2009, the production of Suntech Shanghai Film Factory was only 20MW, while the production of Suntech's crystalline silicon battery was as high as 704MW. In 2010, Shi Zhengrong simply changed his course and changed the thin film battery factory into a crystalline silicon battery factory. Yingli, the second largest PV company in China, will not be involved in the film industry within 10 years. However, in the view of Yang Liyou, general manager of Chint Solar, Suntech’s choice is not equal to the development trend of this industry. Yang Liyou and Shi Zhengrong have many years of experience in thin-film solar research and development. The doctoral student of Li Zhengdao said: "The technological breakthrough in conversion rate is a matter of time." So he led Chint Solar to stick to the film route. In the middle of the river, there is actually a company engaged in the manufacture of optical disc equipment. In 2010, the company named Hongwei Digital invested 13 billion yuan in Dongguan to do thin film solar projects, and has started mass production. Looking back, in 1986, the State Planning Commission listed the topic of "solar battery" in the rural energy "the seventh five-year plan from 1986 to 1990", and the photovoltaic industry started slowly. Since 2004, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. In 2010, China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry has occupied half of the global market. However, China's photovoltaic industry has brought to China a distorted image of a large exporting country, a small country, a large producing country, and a small profitable country. China's photovoltaic industry, like China's low-end manufacturing industry, is becoming a foundry of the world's photovoltaic industry. What is certain is that the era of high gross profit in the photovoltaic industry has completely ended. Even so, in the next few years, the industry will surely usher in a great prosperity and the problems behind prosperity. For PV companies, industry reshuffle is inevitable, and only those companies that can grasp the domestic market and have long-term development plans will laugh at the end. Peng Xiaofeng: When will the power grid problem be solved? I often explain to employees the name of the company: competition is a speed competition, which symbolizes that we must constantly strive to constantly surpass; dimension is a dimension of space, symbolizing our attitude of long-term development. Treat our cause with a forward-looking vision. In the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has encountered many difficulties in its development, but overall, the development trend of this industry is unstoppable. In July 2005, LDK was established. After two years, it landed on the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first company listed in the US in Jiangxi Province and the largest IPO in China's new energy field. In 2010, our sales revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan, making it the world's largest and most profitable PV company. The reason why LDK has achieved such an achievement is because it chose a sunrise industry. However, enterprises have encountered many difficulties in the development process, and many of them are also the difficulties faced by most PV companies in their development. In 2008, the global economy, including the entire photovoltaic industry, faced an unprecedented crisis. LDK was also experiencing the greatest difficulties since its inception. The prices of polysilicon materials and various photovoltaic products have fallen sharply. The upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain canceled or suspended the performance of contracts and orders. The overall weakness of the global economy has led to a downturn in the demand for the entire photovoltaic market. These problems are like a mountain pressure on the heads of all PV companies, including LDK. In the face of the financial crisis, we decisively formulated the "three noes" policy of no layoffs, no pay cuts, and no reduction in production. We stabilized the emotions of our internal employees for the first time, and ensured the unity and unity within LDK, so that we can work together. Work together to face difficulties. In production, we make every effort to reduce costs and reduce unnecessary losses in the production process. Technically, we actively develop technology, improve processes, and work hard to further reduce costs. In sales, we strive to stabilize old customers and actively develop new ones. Customers, through long-term orders, stabilize the sales of the company's products. Through the unremitting efforts of all people, LDK finally came out of the financial crisis with the photovoltaic industry, and in 2009 there was a breakthrough new growth. In addition to the financial crisis, we are also facing the problem of restricting the development of photovoltaics for a long time in the near future and in the future, that is, the grid connection problem of photovoltaic power generation. For a long time, due to many factors such as cost, price and power generation time concentrated in the daytime, the grid-connected problem has always restricted the development of the photovoltaic industry. This issue involves many aspects. To solve this problem, on the one hand, the government needs to give strong support to the policy, including subsidies for electricity prices, encouraging photovoltaic grid connection, simplifying grid-connected procedures, etc. New technologies, improve production processes, reduce production costs, and meet the grid until the Internet is cheaper than traditional energy. At the beginning of this year, LDK also developed its own five-year plan during the 12th Five-Year Plan period in China. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, LDK will realize the leap from photovoltaic technology enterprise to new energy technology group, and will move toward the goal of the world's top 500, and move toward a world-class new energy group with sales revenue of over 100 billion. The leap from photovoltaic technology companies to the new energy technology group is no easy task, and the goal of becoming the world's top 500 and achieving sales revenue of over 100 billion yuan is also a huge challenge for LDK. However, I believe that with the above-mentioned many initiatives going hand in hand, with the joint efforts of the Saiwei people, our goal is not far away, and the desire of LDK "Sunshine to illuminate the future" will eventually be realized. Yan Baofang: How to switch from the commanding height to creativity? 15 years ago, Jinglong Industrial Group, which was established in Ningjin County, Hebei Province, had only three crystal pullers and 30 employees. Today, we are already a top 500 Chinese company and a leader in domestic PV. At present, we have production and R&D bases in Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, and R&D institutions in Germany and the United States. In 2005, the photovoltaic industry entered the most popular development period, the supply of products was in short supply, and the price climbed all the way. However, Jinglong, which started with monocrystalline silicon, has encountered bottlenecks in product transformation. At that time, Jinglong produced more than 1,500 tons of solar-grade monocrystalline silicon, accounting for about 20% of the world market share, and ranked first in the world for years. Therefore, we have proposed the slogan of the world's monocrystalline silicon production base. However, domestic authoritative experts have poured a cold water on Jinglong – isn't it a company that engages in basic materials to chase the solar industry? What can be said about selling materials? In this case, it really stimulated me. Indeed, the production of monocrystalline silicon is at the bottom of the U-shaped curve of the entire solar industry. In 2005, our sales revenue was less than 2 billion yuan, and the scale of the industry is still small. Therefore, winning the high end of the industrial chain, becoming a direction of Jinglong. We quickly selected strategic partners to cooperate with the Solar Research Center of the University of New South Wales, Australia, founded by Martin Green, known as the “Father of Solar Energy”, to establish Jingao Solar Co., Ltd., which is controlled by Jinglong. This is regarded as the key to the transformation of Jinglong. Jinglong has thus formed a complete photovoltaic industry chain from crystal pulling, slicing, to solar cells, components and installation. Even in the severe impact of the international financial crisis, sales revenue in 2009 was still 10.7 billion yuan. In 2010, Jinglong Group's sales revenue has more than doubled. In the first five months of this year, sales revenue of 13.5 billion yuan has been achieved. Anyone familiar with the solar industry knows that in this emerging field, having a complete industrial chain is a real power. When Jinglong decided to cooperate with the Australian side and introduce its advanced technology to supplement its shortcomings, a new problem followed. The Australian side has taken advantage of Jinglong's advantage in basic materials and requires 15% of the shares in the newly established Jingao Solar Co., Ltd. by technology shareholding. At that time, some people said that there were few technology shares in the joint venture and cooperation between the city and the province. Isn’t the technology shareholding a white share? In the face of doubt, my opinion is: The world's advanced solar cell manufacturing technology is in the hands of the University of New South Wales, Australia. The team of joint venture scientists is from here, and the technology is the world's top experts. After the joint venture, it can just complement the technical shortcomings of Jinglong in the production of solar cells. Technology stocks are a leap for enterprises. So in the end it was so fixed. In addition, funds, personnel, etc. are all problems faced by enterprises. But how can we solve it? We regard innovation as a good solution to these problems. We can not buy equipment, we can not do anything else, but we must put innovation into it, otherwise there will be no motivation for enterprise development. In other words, a virtuous circle is formed, which becomes the conscious action of the enterprise. Because you can reduce costs through innovation, you can participate in market competition, because innovation can produce satisfactory products that are recognized by the market. At the same time, as far as the industrial upgrading of enterprises is concerned, it is by no means an upgrade that is simply made up of other people's technologies and equipment. It must be an upgrade of core technology and independent intellectual property rights. We have a provincial science and technology center, four research and development institutions, two laboratories, two postdoctoral workstations, and a research team of more than 150 domestic and foreign experts. Jinglong has more than 20 innovative projects with independent research and development, independent intellectual property rights and substitution for imports. These technological innovations have changed the past to simply imitate the situation created by others. At present, the global PV market relies mainly on subsidies from various governments. The fixed on-grid tariff is recognized as the most effective incentive for the development of the photovoltaic industry, but no similar on-grid tariffs have been introduced in China. China's solar photovoltaic products rely almost entirely on exports, mainly in the European and American markets. Domestic installed capacity accounts for only about 3% of solar PV production, which has led to the development of domestic PV companies subject to foreign markets. We hope that the state will introduce the grid-connected power generation policy mechanism as soon as possible, start the domestic market as soon as possible, and get rid of the embarrassing situation that the domestic photovoltaic industry is subject to foreign markets. At the same time, strengthen the industry guidance, avoid disorderly competition, and make the photovoltaic industry become China's international knowledge. Advantageous industries with property rights and core competitiveness. Su Weili: China's PV companies are losing their way to pure manufacturing. When I left Tianwei Yingli 6 years ago, most of the domestic PV companies are manufacturers. I hope that a company can provide customers with deeper levels of existing manufacturing advantages. , professional PV services. As a result, Tianhua Sunshine Company came into being. Tianhua Sunshine is mainly engaged in the investment and financing and development of photovoltaic power plants, technology research and development, engineering design, construction and operation management in Europe and the United States. If the construction industry is used as a metaphor, photovoltaic manufacturing companies are equivalent to building materials companies, and Tianhua Sunshine is equivalent to real estate developers in the photovoltaic industry. After years of operation in the European and American markets, Tianhua Sunshine has extensive experience in terminal operations and management. Although the investment field of the domestic PV market has not yet formed a sustainable and mature business model, we hope for the future development of China's new energy market. We hope to return to China and hope to contribute to China's PV development and to serve Tianhua Sunshine's experience and technology in China's PV industry. China's PV market is expected to grow significantly in 23 years. Prior to this, the government and different industry chain participants will experience continuous exploration and adjustment. In the PV concession bidding project, the national team almost covers the quota of investment in photovoltaic projects. The private enterprises participating in the bidding are not due to the failure of technology to be abolished, or lose all advantages in the price war. This looks like private enterprises in photovoltaics. Power plant investment needs to detour. We have a different understanding of this. In the development path of the photovoltaic industry, large central enterprises may need to act as pioneers and be pathfinders. From the technical point of view, the Internet, applications, basic data, etc. all need a complementary process. At present, China does not have an accurate set of PV meteorological data. No matter in Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang or Sunshine-rich Tibet and Xinjiang, there is no accurate application data for reference. Without the support of basic data, the current investment is to cross the river, not a mature business investment behavior. State-owned enterprises took the lead in trying to pave the way for the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry in the future. Only through the process of market investment, technological progress and cost reduction can we achieve a benign PV development path of affordable Internet access. In the face of domestic enterprises, Tianhua Sunshine is willing to give full play to its advantages and cooperate with the government and enterprises of various industrial chains to promote the development of China's photovoltaic industry. On the one hand, we will continue to explore the domestic PV market and introduce mature technology and rich experience into China; on the other hand, we will take advantage of Tianhua Sunshine's global layout and export domestic high-quality products to Tianhua Sunshine's global high-return new energy projects. At the same time, we will work together with strategic partners to enhance China's PV brand, promote high-quality PV services to the world, and export Chinese capital to overseas terminal markets to achieve profitability through services and capital. Sun Zhian: Technological innovation is the shortcoming of China's photovoltaic enterprises. Anyang Phoenix Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Huaxian County, Henan Province. It was established in April 2009 with a registered capital of 150 million yuan and assets of 780 million yuan. In just two years, Phoenix PV assets reached 1.5 billion yuan and sales revenue was 1.8 billion yuan. However, Phoenix PV also has problems on the road of development. The development of the domestic PV market is mainly driven by policy subsidies. Domestic PV companies have three disadvantages (technical equipment, market, raw materials), which makes the market changes and shocks have a great impact on the daily operations of enterprises. In 2011, the international solar energy market is entering the era of homogenization competition. China's PV companies relying solely on equipment and production capacity to face development face enormous challenges. In this regard, Phoenix Photovoltaic relies on the rapid development of technological innovation, continuously increasing investment in research and development, promoting the improvement of quality through technical capacity reserves, and optimizing the cost structure. Up to now, Phoenix Photovoltaic still adheres to the implementation of brand strategy and does not make OEM products. Before entering the photovoltaic industry, we have fully demonstrated and analyzed the development mode and path of the photovoltaic industry, and found that the reduction of photovoltaic power generation costs is closely related to technological development. Every technological innovation will significantly reduce costs and promote the scale and industrialization of photovoltaics. It is concluded that the photovoltaic industry must rely on technological innovation to promote development. Since its inception, Phoenix Photovoltaic has established the basic development principle of “R&D is the vitality of the enterprise”. We have always been a green light in the construction of R&D team, the selection of R&D projects, and the matching of funds. Although we have purchased advanced equipment, the technological innovation in this process is brought by equipment. How to rely on our own technical strength to optimize and transform equipment to maximize its value has always been the top priority of our research and development work. Although the first quarter of this year, due to changes in the European market, especially the Italian government to reduce PV subsidies, the pressure from the components, batteries, silicon wafers and even the entire industrial chain of silicon materials has been felt, the liquidity is insufficient, and the photovoltaic industry is pervasive. Pessimistic and helpless voice, but we are still optimistic about the photovoltaic industry, polycrystalline silicon has gradually become the mainstream product of the solar photovoltaic industry. In 2010, the annual global installation volume was 13GW. In 2011, the global market is expected to increase by 20% compared with 2010, reaching 17GW. The history of PV development is unprecedented. It is estimated that the annual global installation volume will reach 55GW in 2015. I have two basic judgments about the future market development: in the long run (the next five years), the photovoltaic industry is still generally good. From the perspective of national policy guidance, after the earthquake in Japan, the energy values ​​of various countries have undergone profound changes. The sound of vigorously developing photovoltaics is endless. The green and pollution-free energy mode such as photovoltaic power generation has once again ushered in development opportunities; from the market perspective Although the European market has slowed down, as the highland of the photovoltaic market, the German government announced a full abandonment of nuclear, injecting a booster into the future development of the European market. In addition, emerging markets such as the United States, India, and Africa all have the needs, capabilities, and conditions for building large-scale photovoltaic power plants, which all indicate the future development potential of the photovoltaic industry. In the short-term inevitable market correction, the development of the photovoltaic industry will certainly undergo continuous reshuffle. Through continuous technological innovation, eliminating backward production capacity, reducing costs, and gradually approaching and reaching parity online. Therefore, this time the market adjustment is very necessary. I personally believe that through such adjustments, Chinese companies that are blindly pursuing rapid expansion will gradually become rational and mature, making the photovoltaic industry healthier. There is nothing wrong with such adjustments. Li Hejun: SMEs are eager for the whole industry chain in the face of the crisis. In 2006, when I was elected president of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce and Industry, I was not very familiar with solar energy. I was also a friend of the Chamber of Commerce who was engaged in solar cell manufacturing and told me that the cost of generating electricity for solar energy is three or four yuan. . At that time, everyone thought that it would take 30 to 40 years for solar energy costs to fall to one yuan, but in 2009, the cost of solar power had dropped to one yuan. In fact, it took only three years. I believe that when the cost of solar energy falls to 0.5 yuan per degree in the near future, the cost of nuclear power, thermal power and oil will be a major turning point in the history of energy. From 2006 to 2009, Hanergy entered the thin film solar industry after three years of industry research. The reason for choosing thin-film solar cells is that thin-film solar cell technology belongs to the second-generation solar cell technology. Compared with the first-generation crystalline silicon solar cell technology, it is environmentally friendly, non-polluting, low-cost, and capable of generating electricity under low light. On the other hand, Hanergy has advanced self-owned technology in thin-film solar cells, which is the confidence of Hanergy in the thin-film solar industry. The characteristics of the solar industry, I summed up are three words: high (tech), large (scale), full (industry chain). The solar industry space is very large, I define it as high-tech energy. Solar energy is high technology and energy. Such two potential industries are superimposed, 1+1 is not equal to 2, but 1+1=11. According to authoritative forecasts, by 2020, the global solar industry will reach 300 GW to 500 GW of production capacity, with a total investment of 3 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, the new energy industry is different from other industries, and it requires a lot of investment. If you really want to scale up, you need hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. In the past, many small and medium-sized enterprises tried to make thin-film solar cells, which all failed. The reason was that there was no scale, the cost of products was high, and there was no market. In addition, the solar industry is a technology-oriented industry. It is impossible to do the middle reaches and the strategic risks are very large. Many companies that produce solar panels only occupy the lower end of the "smile curve", the equipment is imported, and the products are exported. Hanergy is different. Our equipment is manufactured by ourselves. The core technology of our products is our own and we have independent intellectual property rights. This is a major advantage of Hanergy. In addition, Hanergy does solar energy, not only to make batteries, but to integrate the entire industry chain: upstream high-end equipment manufacturing, midstream component production, and downstream power generation. Hanergy is not only producing thin-film batteries, but also forming a complete clean energy industry chain around solar cells. To lead the new energy revolution, it is still indispensable for enterprises, that is, soft power. In the solar energy and new energy industries, a single enterprise cannot do it. It must be trusted and supported by the government and partners. The National Development Bank granted Hanergy 43 billion yuan of thin-film solar loans at the end of 2010. Why is it willing to enter the solar industry together with Hanergy? It is based on the trust of Hanergy and is based on the state's support for the new energy industry. This is something that I am very touched. It is true that in the new energy industry, Hanergy people are faced with more than just opportunities, but also challenges from technology and market. However, the years of hard work in the business world have made me feel that we tend to overestimate the changes of one to two years and underestimate the changes of five to ten years. We may be disappointed with the changes of one to two years, and we will be pleasantly surprised by the changes in 5 to 10 years. I believe that in the next 10 years, the development and strength of the country will exceed our imagination. He Xianhan: The three-in-one supplement model of the photovoltaic industry needs to be changed. In 2004, we began to pay attention to the green energy represented by the solar photovoltaic industry. I believe that the market opportunities brought about by the overall improvement of the emerging energy industry are immeasurable. In order to achieve a specialization in the solar energy power generation equipment manufacturing in the new energy feast, in March 2005 we established Shanghai Hanhong Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. It can be said that we are moving from the background of semiconductor manufacturing to the front of photovoltaic equipment manufacturing. Although we started early in the solar equipment manufacturing industry and developed rapidly, we also saw that China's solar manufacturing companies still follow the “three to one supplement” development model at the beginning of reform and opening up. Take solar photovoltaic cells as an example. A few years ago, everything from raw materials to production equipment relied on imports, and the final products were all exported. Even now, China's solar energy localization equipment and raw materials supply only account for about half, and more than 90% of the solar photovoltaic cells produced are exported. I think China's solar industry must be bigger and stronger, first of all, the strength and strength of solar equipment manufacturing. China's solar photovoltaic industry is big but not strong, because a large part of its profits are inevitably “exploited” by the world's leading equipment manufacturers. Therefore, after years of thinking, from the introduction of advanced technology to the development practice leading the development of the industry, it points to a road to create more. This road is not a smooth road. Although our original semiconductor industry has a certain relationship with the photovoltaic industry, they belong to two different fields. Previously, our equipment (such as wire cutters) had also experienced the forced release of the horse. Experts who come to our company for evaluation believe that the technical parameters of the products are difficult to meet the corresponding requirements. If they are rushed into production, the results can be imagined, so it is a last resort. For this we also broke into a lot of money. Therefore, for our transformation enterprise, the process from the original manufacturing to the solar photovoltaic equipment manufacturing is not a one-step process, but a gradual process. I firmly believe that although the Chinese solar industry has developed rapidly over the past few years, it is still on the rise and has great development prospects. At present, the application of domestic solar power generation is accelerating. The largest producers of solar cells in China, Wuxi Suntech, Changzhou Tianhe, Suzhou Artes, Zhejiang Yuhui, Jiangxi LDK, etc., will increase their production capacity in the future. The promotion prospects are very promising, which also provides a huge business opportunity for Shanghai Hanhong. When China's solar industry is preparing for “overtaking”, we will support the solar industry. This is the mission that the times have given us. Wang Hui: Without the core technology, it will lose its international competitiveness. Henan Yanqi Photovoltaic Energy was established in June 2009. Two years later, Yanqi Photovoltaic has become the only large-scale production of thin film solar collector tubes and their production equipment in China with independent intellectual property rights.世界能源危机和全球气候变化催生了新能源经济萌芽。近年来以太阳能、风能等为代表的可再生能源产业风生水起，科技创新推动太阳能光热光伏应用技术日新月异。但光伏发电成本高依然是其普及应用的最大瓶颈。当前晶体硅太阳能光伏电池仍然占据世界光伏产业的主流地位，但多晶硅生产工艺的属性决定了其产业链生产环节、尤其多晶硅提纯中会存在高能耗，一些技术水平不高的企业甚至存在高污染问题；而在应用中，晶体硅太阳光伏电池由于其温度效应和光谱响应范围窄的影响，使本来较高的光电转换效率大打折扣，从而影响光伏组件实际发电量。薄膜太阳光伏电池因没有这些缺点应运而生，其不足在于转换效率相对较低，生产工艺复杂，生产设备昂贵，难以实现规模化生产。发电成本高是两大类太阳电池的共性问题。铜铟镓硒薄膜太阳能光伏电池具有生产成本较低、能耗低、污染小、不衰减、弱光性能好等特点，光电转换效率居各种薄膜太阳电池之首，接近多晶硅太阳能光伏电池，而耗材大大低于晶体硅电，被国际上称为“下一代非常有前途的新型薄膜太阳能光伏电池”。此外，该电池具有柔和、均匀的黑色外观，是对外观有较高要求建筑物BIPV应用的理想选择，如大型建筑物的玻璃幕墙等，在现代化高层建筑等领域有潜在的广泛市场。但CIGS要实现大面积量产，提升效率和良品率是它必须攻克的难题。在两年的技术研发时间里，燕垣光伏形成了60多个独家技术，经过一年的中试实验，成功研发出新型CIGS管式太阳电池，与国外相比一点都不逊色，但在大型的真空设备生产上还是有瓶颈的。未来35年国内太阳能光伏市场的需求将会迅速释放，太阳能光伏市场的发展将进入高峰期，对于掌握自主知识产权的企业来说，这无疑是非常好的发展机遇。倘若国内光伏企业在技术这块投入更大的决心和动力，我想光伏产业发展前景一定更好。 高纪凡：政府应该大力扶持知名企业当年受到国外太阳能光伏行业蓬勃发展影响，尤其是看到《京都议定书》的签订以及美国政府“百万太阳能屋顶”计划的推出，我与几位科研人员于1997年成立了常州天合光能有限公司，因为我相信这种趋势也必将有益于中国。我们始终以提升太阳能行业的竞争力和能源的效率为己任，致力于打造一个可持续发展的光伏产业。在我看来，未来5年光伏产业平均增长会在20%～30%，2015到2020年增幅在百分之十几，基本呈平滑的下降趋势，但总的来看，还是处在一个成长期。至于说政府补贴的持续下降，这是两码事儿。德国自2004年开始，补贴每年都在下降。补贴下降不是去年开始的，而是整个光伏行业必然趋势。未来发展光伏太阳能有什么危机或者挑战？首先是耗能污染的问题，我希望业界能正确看待这个问题。关于能耗，整个太阳能晶体硅产业链，从石英矿的开采，到太阳能电站安装的完毕，包括材料的生产、运输中间、装完电站所有的能耗加进去都是有限的。像甘肃这样的西部省份，两年半时间就可把太阳能发电在生产过程中产生的，如电站安装等所有能耗全部收回，电站的发电寿命年限是25～30年。从能源的角度看，是一分的投入10倍的产出，所以说高耗能是种误读。另外，今年我们已经在公司的屋顶上建立了一个两兆瓦的太阳能光伏电站，希望逐步地使用太阳能发的电来生产我们的产品。我想随着未来条件的许可和技术创新成本的降低，用更多的太阳能发电来生产我们的太阳能，我相信有一天当然包括储能电池技术的成熟，全部用太阳能生产太阳能，这个都可以实现。严格讲，太阳能是高耗能的概念是不存在的。 2008年，因为个别厂家急于求成，在价格很贵的情况下，清洁项目还没上马就开始做，结果被《纽约时报》报道其有一定的污染排放。这是个别厂家的阶段性行为，实际上多晶硅可以做到污染接近于零排放的情况。多晶硅在中国没有兴起以前，主要在美国、日本、德国生产，这三个国家是一个污染企业容易存在的国家吗？ Certainly not.另外，2008年以后，随着多晶硅价格的下调，外国管制的环境以及企业本身的质量要求，我相信绝大多数企业已经能够达到对环境无污染的情况。从硅片到电池组件过程中对环境的保护本身都非常好，所以整体来讲，高耗能污染的概念应该给它重新正名。我觉得最大的问题是，随着太阳能发电成本的不断下降，储能要是跟不上的话，它的发展将会受阻。所以在发展太阳能发电技术的同时，要非常重视储能技术的发展，这样太阳能发电才能在第一阶段成为能源中重要的组成部分。而储能电池的发展，并不是汽车锂电池的概念，它是更大容量电池的发展，势必将影响太阳能的持续发展。当然，影响时间可能在2020年左右。 2020年后首先必须解决储能的问题，如果有储能的话，光伏产业还可以继续往前走。要特别注意的是，光伏行业的发展实际上是通过科技创新为人类创造价值，但有些企业为了个人、企业的利益，通过违法手段制作一些假冒伪劣产品，应该彻底打击。因为它不仅对中国的光伏产业有害，甚至对全球的光伏产业都有害。这些产品不管是在中国用，还是在外国用，在它20年的保质期内，如果出了大的质量问题，影响的将是中国光伏行业的声誉。此外，建议政府大力培育行业里具有竞争力的知名企业，像日本20世纪70年代，在家电行业全球领先的企业，像韩国在半导体行业领先的企业。光伏产业要成为中国产业的骄傲，一定要有这样的定位。

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