From the analysis of steel production, due to the sluggish demand for downstream steel and the low price of steel market, the operation situation of domestic steel enterprises is more severe. In particular, some steel mills cut production in the third quarter, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of steel production. In the first three quarters, China's crude steel output was 540 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.14 percentage points from the first half of the year. However, affected by the recent infrastructure construction projects and the new round of economic stimulus policies in Europe and the United States, the daily output of domestic steel has rebounded. The daily output of crude steel in September reached 1.93 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month. It is worth noting that the basic contradiction of the current overcapacity of steel is still very serious, and the output still lacks the basic support for continued expansion. From the analysis of steel demand, the slowdown in economic growth has led to weak growth in downstream steel demand. In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of metal products, general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 11.6%, 8.2%, 9.6% and 9.4%, respectively. During the same period, it decreased by 7.0, 10.8, 11.6 and 6.2 percentage points. In addition, due to the role of “restricted purchase and loan restriction†housing policy, the national real estate development investment increased by 15.4% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points lower than the first half of the year. Construction steel accounted for about half of the total steel demand, and the growth rate of real estate development investment declined. Steel demand is weakening. In the first three quarters, the cumulative export volume of China's steel products was 40.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. It only rebounded sharply in September. However, from the economic indicators of major economies, the economic recovery of these countries is insufficient. Therefore, international steel demand It is also not optimistic. From the analysis of steel market prices, since mid-April this year, steel prices have continued to decline until the bottom of September rebounded. As of the beginning of October, the China Steel Association's comprehensive price index reached 105.16 points, which has maintained a rebound for four consecutive weeks, but still dropped by about 19% compared with the same period last year. The main reason for the recent rebound in steel prices: First, the reduction of production in some steel companies in August eased the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. Second, due to the increase in infrastructure policies and the introduction of the third quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States, the market confidence in the long-term downturn has recovered, especially in steel futures. Third, the recent domestic steel social inventories have been continuously reduced to low levels. The positive release of signals has led to the release of market demand, which has stimulated the market price to rise in the short term. From the recent trend of steel market price trends, the current overall economy is still in the process of slowing down and stabilizing, and some economic operation indicators have undergone positive changes, but whether it is from the new construction area of ​​real estate, or the new black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in PMI According to the order index, the demand for major downstream steel products has not improved significantly. A series of favorable policies can boost the confidence of the steel market in the short term, and in order to truly get the steel industry out of the predicament, there must be real steel demand as a strong support. At the same time, the impulse to release production capacity of domestic steel companies is still strong, and the upward price will inevitably prompt enterprises to speed up the recovery of production scale and re-establish market supply pressure. Therefore, the recent steel market prices will show a phased correction, and then sideways shocks.
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Steel prices rebounded briefly, the industry situation is still grim
Abstract From the analysis of steel production, due to the sluggish demand for downstream steel and the low price of steel market, the operation situation of domestic steel enterprises is more severe, especially in the third quarter, some steel mills cut production, resulting in a lower level of steel production growth. . The first three quarters of China...