Severe fluctuations in rubber prices tire companies "can not afford to hurt"

After spending a week in black, commodities rebounded on Monday. International crude oil prices rose by more than 3% and returned above 100 US dollars. The domestic futures market also rebounded across the board. Among them, rubber rebounds in the previous week were the largest, with an increase of 2.8%. As domestic natural rubber consumption accounts for one-third of the world's total, natural rubber prices have become the focus of market attention.

According to statistics, only last week, the market value of the international commodity ** market “evaporated” 99 billion US dollars, setting the biggest weekly decline since the 2008 financial crisis, and the decline in natural rubber is even more pronounced. It is reported that the domestic market price of natural rubber on the 6th settlement price of 3,008 yuan / ton, down 6.19%, although yesterday Hujiao contract all the red, but analysts interviewed believe that the recent natural rubber rebound is mainly experienced last week After the retaliatory rebound after the fall, the future price trend of natural rubber is still not optimistic; and downstream tire companies are also cautious about this.

LME ** is more than closing up Aluminum rose more than 1% 2011 cotton supply increase cotton prices difficult to stir CME significantly increased energy ** margin "dangerous" crude sugar price brewing rebound medium-term weaknesses Difficult to change and news Investment Strategy Club: expert teaching Look at the price of rubber at the bottom of the bakelite market is still not optimistic. In fact, since the beginning of February this year, the domestic natural rubber began to decline the road, after experiencing the range shocks from mid-March to mid-April, natural rubber accelerated decline, fell to The key position is 30,000 yuan/ton, and the decline from mid-February to the present is close to 30%. After the financial crisis in 2009, the biggest drop was after Tianjiao started rising prices.

“The price of natural rubber is relatively large. As far as I know, the price of natural rubber is currently around 30,000 yuan. From past experience, the price of natural rubber will start to rebound after reaching 30,000 yuan, but the final trend is affected by many factors. At present, It is not easy to make a judgment, but overall, the market outlook is bearish.” Xinhua ** Glue analyst Wang Tao told reporters: “Only from the perspective of supply and demand, each year from May to July is the peak season for the production of natural rubber, but this year’s main Supplying countries such as Thailand and the Philippines have suffered heavy rain, and supply may be tight; while the downstream domestic auto industry has entered a downward avenue, the current operating rate of tire companies is generally low and demand is not very strong, so the trend of the market outlook is hard to say. But it should be noted that Natural rubber price itself is relatively high, and it is indeed the callback."

Yang Jun, a research fellow at CITIC Securities, bluntly stated: “Natural rubber prices will rebound in the short term, but there is little room for rebound. In the long run, the focus of transaction price will be shifted downwards. It is estimated that natural rubber prices will be within this year. Between 28000-38000 yuan turbulence, because in the short-term there is a demand for oversold bounce, and the current inventory of natural rubber is not much; but with the late listing of new plastic, the supply situation will be significantly improved."

According to him, the price elasticity of natural rubber is high. Apart from the fact that the upstream and downstream price control of the industry is not strong, the main reason is the promotion of financial capital, and the impact of systemic risks caused by the tightening of national policies cannot be ignored. For example, from January to May 2010, the country raised a total of three times the deposit reserve ratio, the market is expected to tighten the policy, the plastic market fell 21%; and in 2011 under the pressure of inflation, austerity policy to suppress the market The intensity was far greater than in 2010, and the price of natural rubber soared above 40,000 yuan. The bubble was too large. The tightening of macroeconomic policies in 2011 made the speculative properties of the plastic market appear rapidly. At present, prices are still operating at high levels, and the trend in the latter period is not optimistic.

Tire business cost pressure is undoubtedly no doubt, affected by natural rubber price fluctuations bear the brunt of downstream tire companies. It is reported that natural rubber is one of the indispensable raw materials and directly determines the profitability of the company. Relevant sources said that before the cost of natural rubber accounted for about 40% of corporate costs, but with the rise in the price of natural rubber, the cost ratio has exceeded 50%; even if the tire prices have risen last year, but the cumulative increase is only 20% - 30%, tire companies still face greater cost pressures.

Sun Wenze, a securities representative of Shuangqin Co., Ltd., said: "Because of the large proportion of total cost of natural rubber, raw material price fluctuations will certainly have a great impact on us. Natural rubber drop is good for the company, but currently raw materials The price is also facing uncertainty, the company is also difficult to control.” And an employee of ST Huang Hai (600579) told the reporter directly: “Although Tianjiao fell a bit last week, the overall price is still high. At present, our pressure is still very large. In addition to the high prices of raw materials, the current downstream demand is not very optimistic, and the current product market competition is also relatively strong.” But for the impact of natural rubber price fluctuations on the performance of the company, these people said "Hard to say". However, according to reporters' inquiries, last year, the loss of tire companies exceeded 20%, and the loss of tire companies this year has exceeded 50%.

"Actually, for tire companies, whether price is up or down, stability is the best." Yang Jun said: "Because most tire companies are mainly based on spot purchases, there are few stocks, hedging And other safe-haven methods are not necessarily suitable.” Yang Jun’s views were agreed by the above-mentioned company figures.

"The real value of hedging is not easy, and it still faces some risks," said Sun Wen. ST Huanghai employees believe that: "It is not realistic for companies to sell goods because it requires sufficient cash flow support and the prices of natural rubber are ups and downs, and they are not afraid to go wrong. The risk is too high. Although there are some natural rubber prices, If we fall back, companies will not dare to make a lot of reserves, because if the price of rubber falls, then the company will not be able to make a bad loss, so we usually buy it on demand."