Polysilicon imports will remain tight in 2011 supply

In the first three quarters of 2010, China imported a total of 31,500 tons of polysilicon. The cumulative import volume in the first 11 months has reached 41.89 million tons. It is estimated that the annual import volume in 2010 will reach 45,000 tons. Among them, the import volume in November reached 6,153 tons, up 159.8% year-on-year, up 45% from the previous month, and the highest record of 4757 tons imported in September.

According to the current domestic polysilicon supply and market demand in 2011, it is expected that the overall market supply will be tight in 2011. According to relevant personages of GCL-Poly, in order to solve the situation of high import volume of polysilicon, relevant ministries and commissions have begun to discuss the issue of widening the approval of polysilicon projects.

Polysilicon supply is still tight in 2011
According to international research institute iSuppli, the global PV installed capacity will increase by more than 100% in 2010, reaching 15.7GW. The market's unexpected growth has led to tight supply in the polysilicon market. Polysilicon prices have also risen from $40 to $50/kg at the beginning of the year to around $100/kg in the fourth quarter.

Market analysts believe that another important reason for the surge in imports in November is that after entering October, the price of natural gas and electricity prices and the reduction of production and maintenance of some polysilicon plants have led to a decline in domestic polysilicon production.

According to preliminary estimates, the actual production of domestic polysilicon in 2010 was about 40,000 tons, which means that 50% of domestic polysilicon is imported. This is basically the same as the market pattern of about 50% of polysilicon consumption imports in 2009.

The market research institution CIC consultant believes that there are only a handful of polysilicon enterprises with low cost advantages at home and abroad, and it is not easy to convert production capacity into supply. The small capacity below a single line of kilotons is limited by high costs and is directly eliminated by the market. Polysilicon supply will remain tight in 2011 and prices will remain high. For Chinese PV companies, targeting low-cost, stable silicon materials will determine whether there will be good performance in 2011.

It is reported that the largest polysilicon supplier in China, GCL-Poly's existing 21,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity has all reached production, and the production will reach 25,000 tons by technical transformation next year. However, according to the current orders for polysilicon wafers signed by the company and downstream customers, it is expected that only GCL-Poly will need to import thousands of tons of polysilicon next year.

Polysilicon project approval or relaxation
On September 26, 2009, the State Council issued the “Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Reducing Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of Industries”, which was drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, almost blocked the approval of the domestic polysilicon project. The document pointed out that China's polysilicon construction capacity is about 80,000 tons, and the production capacity has been obviously surplus.

However, a large-scale polysilicon producer in China said that the capacity under construction and the effective production capacity cannot be equated. The production capacity of a single line with a cost advantage of 3,000 tons/year is competitive. According to the draft of the “Plastic Industry Access Standards” currently under discussion by the ministries and commissions, the single-line scale of the new polysilicon project must be greater than 3,000 tons/year, and the reduction power consumption is less than 80 kWh/kg.

Although the market still has differences on the high growth of the photovoltaic industry in 2011, it is expected that the growth of the photovoltaic industry will remain 30% in the years after 2011.

According to relevant persons of GCL-Poly, in order to solve the situation of high import volume of polysilicon, relevant state departments have begun to discuss the issue of polysilicon project approval and relaxation.

The above-mentioned relevant persons said that the polysilicon project will take 18 to 24 months from construction to initial production. If the time of policy liberalization is delayed, and then a batch of projects will be released at the same time, it may cause the stage of polysilicon after two or three years. excess.

 

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