Phosphatic fertilizer prices stable fall market or warmer

Recently, the phosphate fertilizer market has been calm and has not changed much. The export of phosphate fertilizers is proceeding normally and the export prices have not changed. Manufacturers are gradually collecting ports. According to Zou Yan, Marketing Department of Yunnan Yuntianhua Sanhuan Chemical Co., Ltd., the overall export situation has been set, and orders have basically been signed. The rest of the work is nothing more than simple shipment and shipment. Exports are unlikely to change. At present, in addition to normal exports, phosphate fertilizer manufacturers have begun to set the domestic market.

The diammonium market will hold steady. "If the diammonium export can reach 3 million tons this year, it should be more optimistic in the autumn market," Zou Yan said. From the macro supply and demand analysis, the diammonium supply and demand in autumn will maintain a basic balance. Relevant data show that: During the period from June to October, domestic production is about 5.75 million tons, and the maximum export volume is expected to be 3 million tons. The market supply in autumn is about 4.06 million tons (including May stockpiles), and the total market demand in autumn is about 3 million tons. From this set of data, the balance between supply and demand in the fall is basically balanced, but some people worry that the new production capacity may cause impact on the market.

According to Zou Yan, in the first half of this year, Dagukou added 600,000 tons of diammonium capacity, and in Hubei and other regions, there will be about 2.6 million tons of new capacity. By the end of this year, the output of diammonium will have reached 20.91 million tons. According to previous years' experience, new capacity cannot be released quickly because there will be a run-in period for the new plant, and at the same time the phosphate ore is very tight. Zou Yan said: "Like last year's new production capacity, it has not been fully realized so far. In the face of the increasingly strained phosphate mineral resources, it will be difficult for this year's new production capacity to be released smoothly." Therefore she believes that the fall market will remain Smooth trend. “According to the domestic shipments in summer, the ex-factory price of 64% diammonium is basically stable at around RMB 3,300/tonne, so under the condition of balance between supply and demand, this price is difficult to lower.” Based on this understanding, manufacturers There is more confidence in the diammonium market in autumn.

An ammonium market "will not be too bad"

So far, there has been no sign of improvement in the ammonium market. Although the compound fertilizer companies started to produce one after another, the phosphate fertilizer companies reflected in the upper reaches point of view still have a small amount of monoammonium. At present, the mainstream price of 55% ammonium phosphate factory price 2550-2650 yuan / ton, even if the price dropped again and again, but the market response was flat, the transaction is still limited. "The main reason is that today's compound fertilizer companies are very cautious and unwilling to invest a lot of money in raw material procurement." Zou Yan said. Therefore, the price reduction does not make much sense to boost the market. The strategy of the phosphate fertilizer manufacturers can only wait for the start of compound fertilizer production. It is expected that at the end of this month, compound fertilizer companies will gradually purchase ammonium for production. As for the future market of ammonium, Zou Yan does not think it is necessary to be too pessimistic. “Because the price of diammonium is still maintained at a certain height, the market outlook for ammonium will not be too bad, so we are not in a hurry. If there is no compound fertilizer company, If we do, we will digest our own inventory.” At present, the production of mono-ammonium is gradually recovering, and manufacturers will increase production to prepare for the fall market.