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The zinc inventories from the 100.8 million tons on October 30 continued to decline at a rate of more than 1,000 tons per day. Today's inventory is only 80,000 tons, which is the lower level of more than 10 years since April 1991. The same period last year, inventory decreased by 80%, is about 1/4 of the beginning of the year, the supply side of the worries, so that speculative buying funds, trade buying have pushed to push up the selling price, repeatedly created a contract more than half a month The new high has risen from 4,200 U.S. dollars to 4,540 U.S. dollars, and the cumulative increase during the year has reached 130%. At present, despite the pressure from profit-taking and price adjustments, the fundamentals are difficult to change in a short time. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) Reported that the global zinc consumption increased from January to September to 8.208 million tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, and a shortage of 304,000 tons. Analysts expect that the zinc inventory will be reduced to about 50,000 tons in the first half of 2007, and low inventory will help it rebound.
Just as zinc prices have been rising in the external disk, domestic zinc factories have been exporting, especially the high-quality brand 0# zinc. The Shanghai spot market is hardly a sign of high-quality brands, which further increases the demand for 1# zinc. The supply is tight in November. In the middle and early part of the day, spot prices have steadily increased. From the end of last month, the price of 31,500 yuan / ton, directly exceeded 33,000 yuan / ton, rushed to 34,000 yuan / ton, seems to have set a record of 35,000-36,000 yuan / ton in May. sign. Although it was dragged down by "empty" copper after the end of November, there was a downward adjustment, but it also showed good resilience. Only the downgrade of LME affected domestic export operations and part of the trade mentality. From the spot level, when the price fell At the time of 32,000 yuan, the trading activity was rather active. Users had bottomed out and bought goods on the low side. From this we can understand that the fundamentals have not been changed, the supply is still insufficient, the demand is still positive, and after adjustment, there will still be certain Rising trend.
Zinc can not be separated from the genus LME lead belonging to the shining star. LME lead stocks also fell and fell again, and inventory has fallen to a historical low of more than 40,000 tons. At the same time, according to a more recent monthly report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the consumption of refined lead in the world from January to September this year was 5.911 million tons, which was higher than the 5.049 million tons in the same period of last year, an increase of 271,000 tons or 4.5%. The fundamentals continued to break new highs for lead, reaching US$1,750, up 75% from the same period last year and up 60% from the beginning of the year.
Domestic lead prices are still priceless and market-free. Because the ratio of LME lead price to domestic lead price is widened, the export of manufacturers is profitable. In October, there is no certain amount of cargo fully supplied to the Shanghai market. The original traders in stock gradually digested and the price rushed straight to. Between the yuan and the yuan, the transaction was almost vacuumed. The supply and demand sides both had some concerns about the future supply. The high lead price restrained some consumption to a certain extent, and consumer users were waiting to wait and see. External disk prices directly affect the trend of domestic spot prices, given that the current LME lead price is being sideways, the domestic spot price is also temporarily between 14300 and 14500 yuan.
Aluminum: In addition to lead and zinc, aluminum is worth mentioning. The inventory of aluminum has been steadily decreasing, and the current inventory is already around 680,000 tons. Due to the strong demand from North American countries and Europe and the lack of supply, the European aluminum spot premium is high and the positions have been steadily increasing. On November 1, the Chinese government suddenly announced an increase in the export tariffs on copper, aluminum and nickel to 15%. As China is a larger aluminum exporter, the international market is worried that the supply of the aluminum market will become tighter in the future, triggering speculative buying of funds. With trade buying, short covering helped push aluminum prices up to $2,834, a record high since May. Although the heights were not overwhelming, the huge resistance of $2800 was finally met with a profit-taking pressure, and the aluminum price hovered around $2,700.
A policy of two kinds of reactions. On November 1st, the export of copper and aluminum increased, and the import of alumina decreased by 3%. The international market responded to the supply concerns and caused a strong rise. However, the domestic market suddenly turned a corner when the original Masukura all the way up, and the aluminum market has repeatedly stopped falling. A large-scale reduction in open interest and a large withdrawal of speculative funds. The spot price also fell from RMB 21,400 to RMB 20,400 in 2 days, and the supply of goods was in a wait-and-see mode. However, due to the fact that Shanghai’s spot aluminum inventory was already below 10,000 tons, the supply was not sufficient, and the market could pay. Investment in spot aluminum is also not much. Shanghai Aluminum has adjusted its time after the tax increase policy for more than a week, restoring the attention of the market. Related companies have instead increased their exports of aluminum manufactured goods, making consumption of primary aluminum. Demand is also recovering or increasing. Demand growth and declining inventory support the bullish atmosphere and increase confidence in speculative funds. The market has been bought by all parties when the price has declined several times to below 20,000 yuan. Strong support, the price stability of 21,000 yuan / ton is strong, the transaction is about 21600, the premium has risen to 500-600 yuan / ton, although the market is still with a caution, but the market outlook continues to increase the probability of seeing more.
Relative to other base metals, copper stocks have been increasing. They have jumped to 150,000 tons, and finally they couldn't resist profit-taking and new air selling pressure. They have technically shaken away from swinging between 7200-7800 US dollars for several months. After sorting out, it fell below the psychological support of 7,000 US dollars. The supporting power is getting weaker and weaker. The trend is weak, and the cash discount is constantly expanding, only at 28-35 US dollars, which fully shows that the spot consumption gradually softens. Due to the recent sluggish series of data in the United States, the producer price index has dropped significantly, far above the previously expected decline. The core price index has also fallen, becoming a larger decline since 1993, and US housing starts fell to six years. The low point and weak index caused people to worry that the slowdown in economic growth will cause the surplus of base metals to remain in surplus next year. The US dollar interest rate will not move for the moment and the pressure of funds will put pressure on copper prices. China’s copper imports fell by 22.4% in January-October 2006. In recent years, China’s factor has been seen as one of the main drivers of metal market demand.
LME fell below the psychological threshold of 7,000 US dollars, a direct impact on the domestic copper price trend, Shanghai copper also reported the situation with the daily limit, a large number of sell-off hit a new low of 65,060 yuan in four months, down nearly 3,000 yuan. Although the Shanghai copper futures trend was weak, due to the tight spot supply, the premium jumped from 200-400 yuan to 1,800 yuan, the premium increased by 300%, the copper price was 65,000-68,500 yuan, and a small part of the market appeared in Chile CCC, ENM, Poland. Large plates, Japan and other imported copper, Shanghai (SHFE) stocks once again reduced, inventory remains only 27,000 tons, at the lower point of the year, forming a strong support for the spot price, close to the end of the spot will promote the strong rebound in copper prices, However, 70,000 yuan is a resistance level. Due to the lack of attention on copper, the current trading is relatively light. In December, some banks close to the end of the loan collection behavior, settlement issues, will affect the price breakthrough, is expected to continue weak consolidation in December.
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November non-ferrous market: copper is weak aluminum price zinc zinc lead aluminum record
In November, copper was always weak and sideways, and it was difficult to support the decline in the lead. Zinc, lead and aluminium recorded a record and aluminum prices rebounded.