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Non-ferrous metals in 2012 will still be oversupply
In the first quarter of 2012, the global economic recovery was frustrated. In April, central banks intensively introduced interest rate cuts, especially in emerging countries, which seemed to start a new round of stimulus policies. In this context, the trend of non-ferrous metals and the commodity market behind them is attracting attention. From the interviews of several research institutions at home and abroad, in addition to copper, other non-ferrous metals including aluminum in 2012 or Both will face a situation of oversupply. Copper market: There is still a gap in supply this year. “The strong copper as a financing property will benefit from the risk aversion. In addition, the relatively good fundamentals of the copper market, copper prices are expected to be relatively strong in 2012. The expected range is 7500. ~9500 US dollars / ton, the average price of 8200 US dollars / ton; domestic copper price fluctuation range is 54000 ~ 68000 yuan / ton, the average price of 59,000 yuan / ton." Antako's report on the organization of non-ferrous metals research shows. Last year, the domestic copper price fluctuated between 54,000 and 74,000 yuan/ton, with the trend being the strongest in the second and third quarters. However, the agency believes that this year's copper price will be affected by China's destocking, and the trend should be reversed. "The prices in the second and third quarters are weak, and the fourth quarter is expected to strengthen again." From the supply level, the International Copper Research Institute expects a gap in the global copper market this year. It should be at 256,000 tons, and the research institute BrookHunt's data is 117,000 tons. German business EUGENWEINBERG even believes that "the first half of 2012 is the last year in which supply is in short supply." However, domestic institutions are not so optimistic. Song Jinxi, a metal analyst of Economics Futures, said: "In the short term, there may be a phenomenon of oversupply in 2013, because the current reserves can meet the demand of 20 to 30 years, so the current investment. The willingness to explore is not too strong.†From the perspective of supply and demand, copper prices should continue to rise mainly in the long run. “But overall, the copper price market may still exhibit regional price imbalances this year,†Song Jinxi said. Aluminium market: oversupply is serious. “The replacement effect of copper prices may ease the further decline in aluminum prices, but given that supply will still exceed demand in 2012, aluminum prices in 2012 may be hovering around cost prices.†Societe Generale on aluminum The market remains pessimistic. However, due to rising energy prices, the production cost of aluminum will increase further this year, so the nominal price may increase. In the research report at the end of March, Societe Generale predicted: "The price in the second quarter may be at $2,125/ton, and the average for the whole year is $2,225/ton. Since 2013, aluminum prices will gradually increase, and by 2015, It will reach 2,600 US dollars / ton." In recent years, due to the substantial increase in production capacity in the global market, especially in China, the Middle East, etc., the supply of primary aluminum is oversupplied and the price continues to be sluggish. In 2011, it even exceeded the cost price for a long time. The data given by BrookHunt is that the excess capacity this year is about 1 million tons. In 2011, the price ratio of copper and aluminum was 4:1, and now it is slightly improved to 3.8:1. However, the global demand for primary aluminum in 2011 increased by 9.3% year-on-year. This year, Societe Generale's forecast for this data is only 5.5%. . Small metals: overcapacity For small metals such as nickel, zinc and lead, the market generally believes that this year will be oversupply and prices will be under pressure. According to data from WBMS (World Metals Data Bureau), the supply gap for nickel in 2011 was 109,000 tons. BrookHunt expects an oversupply of about 38,000 tons in 2012, and by 2013 this figure will be significantly increased to 82,000 tons. An Runke non-ferrous metal analyst Fan Runze believes: "Under the pressure of supply and demand pressure and the many uncertain factors in the macroeconomic side, the global nickel price trend will fluctuate within a narrow range in 2012, with an average price of about 20,000 to 21,000 US dollars / ton. The average price of nickel in the domestic market is 155,000 yuan / ton." Zinc and lead also face similar problems. According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Association, the zinc supply surplus in 2011 was about 353,000 tons. This year's global economic slowdown, especially the slowdown in China's economy, may lead to further weakening demand.