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Many economists: China's inflation or long-term high
Inflationary pressure has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Although the inflation data in April has slightly decreased year-on-year, the future inflation situation is still not optimistic. A few days ago, many economists said that the inflation situation may ease temporarily in the second half of the year, but high inflation will continue for a long time in the future. At the 2011 Shanghai Lujiazui Forum, independent economist Xie Guozhong said that China's inflation problem is very serious, and price changes are particularly large. This is the third time that China has faced such inflation after the reform and opening up. Xie Guozhong believes that the inflationary pressure brought by the rise in commodity prices will support China's inflation to remain relatively high this year and next. “In fact, in the next 4 to 5 years, China’s CPI index will be at a high level.†Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, also expressed similar views in this forum. He said: “Inflation is inevitably high in 2011, and the economic growth rate will slow down in the future, but the inflation rate may be higher.†In fact, the long-term high inflation is not only uploaded in the Lujiazui Forum, but also a forum held in Beijing recently. On the other hand, Li Daokui, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, said that inflation should not exceed 5% this year, slightly higher than 4%, but domestic inflation will remain at a relatively high level in the next 5 to 10 years. But he also said that although inflation is expected to remain high for a long time, in the second half of this year, CPI is expected to drop first. He expects CPI to fall back to 4% this year.