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In the downstream demand of the machine tool industry, automobile and engineering machinery accounted for more than 50%. We saw that the monthly output of the automobile industry reached a new high in 2009, and the sales volume of the products reached a record. The main sub-sectors of construction machinery are compacting machinery, lifting machinery, and digging. The monthly production of transportation machinery and concrete machinery is also at a historical high in 2009. The downstream demand industry of the machine tool industry is booming. We believe that most companies in 2010 will further expand their capital expenditure plans to meet downstream consumer demand.
Due to the impact of the financial crisis, the monthly output of metal cutting machine tools and the monthly output of CNC metal cutting machine tools fell sharply in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. In the second half of 2009, the output of the industry gradually recovered and the growth rate gradually accelerated. The monthly output of metal cutting machine tools has reached a record high, and the confidence of related machine tool manufacturers in the recovery of downstream demand has increased significantly.
From the monthly export orders of Japanese forging machinery, it can be seen that the external demand for forging machinery has increased substantially, while the main customers of Japanese export orders are Chinese enterprises, and the domestic manufacturing industry in China has recovered significantly. From the monthly orders of Japanese machine tools, we can see that the demand for machine tools in China has increased substantially, the demand in Europe and the United States has gradually stabilized and recovered, and the global manufacturing industry has gradually recovered. The pace of China's recovery is faster than that of developed countries in Europe and America.
Considering the growth of the industry in the future and the improvement of the profitability of related leading companies' product structure adjustment, combined with the valuation comparison of listed companies in relevant international industries, we believe that the industry's reasonable PE in 2010 is between 25-30 times, and the current industry valuation level is attractive. We maintain the industry's "overweight" rating, with a focus on Kunming Machine Tools, Qinchuan Development and Shenyang Machine Tools.
Machine tool industry: performance turning point has come new cycle
The domestic PMI has remained in the expansion zone of 50 or more for 12 consecutive months. Although it has declined in February, we believe that it is only a short-term adjustment, and the macro environment of the industry is still in continuous improvement. At the same time, we have seen that fixed assets investment in general equipment, special equipment, transportation equipment and electrical Machinery manufacturing has maintained a growth rate of more than 30%. Maintaining high investment in fixed assets in the manufacturing industry will drive demand for machine tool products.