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The deal is still in the downturn
“The site procurement is not very good, there is no reversal trend at present.†Bai Jinglong, deputy manager of the marketing department of Beijing Chaoyin Shunde Trading Co., Ltd. said.
Bai Jinglong told the Lange Steel News Center that on the 15th, the low-priced resources of individual specifications were better, and the snails sold better at a low price of 4,290 to 4,300 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was still very general. According to the statistics of Baijinglong, on the 14th, the steel market in Beijing was generally sold, and the average transaction volume of the market was around 2,000 tons.
He is very confused about the current steel market Baijinglong. He said: "Because downstream demand is very unstable, most steel traders are holding a wait-and-see attitude and don't know what to do next."
According to Zheng Wenhong, manager of Beijing Taihua Jiulong Economic and Trade Co., Ltd., the main reason is that the unstable steel prices have caused unstable demand. “When the construction site is bullish, it will enlarge the purchase volume and purchase it on demand when it is bearish. Because the steel price volatility is too big this year, the steel price rises for a short time this year, and the time of the decline is long. There is no law to follow. We can't understand the market." Zheng Wenhong said helplessly, and revealed some helplessness in his tone.
Zheng Wenhong is still not optimistic about the steel market in the later period. According to his reaction, the current construction site is not in a hurry. "Because the state regulations do not allow land, many construction sites started in October. However, the new property policy is getting stricter. Soon the property tax will be introduced again. The housing market is in a downturn and the construction site is under construction. No longer rushing. A previous project may be a year, but now it has no choice but to do two or three years, of course, steel demand can not go."
Tangshan energy conservation and emission reduction is still very strict
China Steel Association reported that in late September, its member companies produced a total of 14.17 million tons of crude steel, with a national estimate of 16.78 million tons. The average daily output was 141.7 and 1.678 million tons respectively, a net increase of 11.2 and 131,000 tons respectively. The average width was 8.6% and 8.5%, respectively. The industry analysts believe that the relaxation of energy-saving emission reductions in some provinces and cities and the resumption of production are the main reasons for the recovery in late September.
The energy conservation and emission reduction efforts did not seem to be relaxed. According to insiders of Jinxi Iron and Steel Group, in order to actively respond to the government's call for energy conservation and emission reduction, as of October 15th, there are currently 3 1280×1, 450×2 blast furnaces, 1 120-ton converter, and 3 H-beam rolling lines. At present, it is not known how much the specific impact will be produced. The specific date of resumption of production is expected to be fixed.
According to the reaction of the person, Jinxi Iron and Steel's active production cuts were not due to the current downturn in the steel market, which led to a decline in profits. Moreover, the government still has strict supervision on the energy conservation and emission reduction of steel mills in Tangshan, but the supervision during the National Day has been relaxed. After the National Day, Tangshan area The government has begun to strictly control energy conservation and emission reduction policies.
What is the actual effect of energy saving and emission reduction in Tangshan in September? In mid-September, Guojin Securities conducted a field investigation of steel mills in Tangshan area and found that there are 136 blast furnaces in the Tangshan area, with a designed production capacity of 92,801 cubic meters. On September 9, a total of 25 blast furnaces were shut down, totaling 10,310 cubic meters, September 14 The total number of 33 blast furnaces stopped was 13,500 cubic meters, and the volume of production stopped on September 14 was 14.55%, which was 14.55%. As of September 14, the 14.55% of the blast furnace volume in Tangshan City and 24.26% of the blast furnace capacity were discontinued, which is far from the local government's cut-off of 46% in September-December.
The clarification of energy conservation and emission reduction in October also showed that the government is determined to implement energy conservation and emission reduction. Therefore, many steel traders are still expecting high energy conservation and emission reduction. Liao Jinghua, deputy general manager of Beijing Baihui Yixiang Electronics Co., Ltd., has been optimistic about the effect of energy saving and emission reduction. "At present, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Liaoning are all limiting production and limiting production. The implementation of policies is stricter, and the decline in inventory caused by the reduction in production will appear later."
Lange Steel Network Information Director Ma Li said that energy saving and emission reduction is promising, but the uncertainty factor is too large, mainly because the implementation of steel mills is too far from the government requirements.
Steel prices go against the trend
Many people in the industry believe that there are more factors in the steel market. "Rising interest rates and RMB appreciation should benefit steel prices. Power cuts will also show results in the later period. Spot mine prices will continue to rise in the later period. The cost of small steel mills will increase, and the cost of steel mills will also be high. It should rise." Liao Jinghua said.
A person from Hegang analyzed that there are still more favorable factors in the steel market, raw material prices are on the rise, energy conservation and emission reduction are not diminished, and good export conditions will benefit the steel market.
The person analyzed: "Based on the current cost, steel prices should have a price increase of 200 to 300. The market price of secondary steel thread for construction steel is 4,200 to 4,300 yuan / ton, and steel mills have active production."
According to the information monitoring data of Lange Steel, the steel price has been falling from October 12 to 15, even if the quotation has not dropped, there are many cases in which the transaction is dimmed.
Liao Jinghua told the author: "The steel price was unchanged from yesterday's on the morning of the 15th, but it began to fall dark again in the afternoon! The drop is around 20 or 30 yuan, even if the price cut is not very good."
Xia Wei, director of the marketing department of Anshan Iron and Steel, told the Lange Steel News Center: "There is support under the steel price, there is pressure on the market, and the short-term will be a shock market."
Xia Wei said that the current cost of steel mills is still at a high level, most steel mills are still using iron ore in the third quarter, and the iron ore agreement price in the third quarter is $ 147 / ton, iron ore in the fourth quarter will not be until the first quarter of next year. Put into use, limited by the cost of supporting steel prices.
As for the ex-factory price trend of steel in November, Xia Wei believes that the ex-factory price will not increase in November, because the current steel price is seriously reversed.
In the case of steel traders with very little cargo, the trend of steel prices is determined by changes in terminal demand and stocks. High stocks have always been an objective factor limiting steel prices. Zheng Wenhong said: "In 2008, Beijing's construction steel inventory was only 80,000 tons at the lowest, and in 2009 it was only about 220,000 tons. In 2010, Beijing's construction steel inventory never fell below 500,000 tons, so steel prices are not It may rise too much."
Steel mills will reverse the situation if diverted
According to Shanghai steel traders, there are signs of North goods going south, and it is rumored that 60,000 tons of steel have arrived in Shanghai. Insiders of Hebei Iron and Steel Group analyzed that the impact of 60,000 tons of steel on the steel market is still very small, unless River Steel diverts 200,000 tons of steel to the south, which will have a significant impact on the northern steel market.
The industry believes that the north cargo may be due to differences in steel prices between the North and the South. According to the information monitoring data of Lange Steel, the price of Φ25mm rebar produced by Beijing Shougang/Tangshan Steel/Xuanang Steel was 4150 yuan on the 15th, while the price of Φ25mm rebar produced by Shanghai Baosteel was 4320 yuan/ton. The lowest market price in Shanghai was Φ25mm. The price of rebar is 4170 yuan / ton.
An insider of Hegang analyzed: "If Hegang takes the initiative to produce 20% of the monthly steel output, then the 80% steel price of Hegang in the north will be protected, which can effectively reverse the current trend of steel prices."
Global commodity prices soared steel prices were on the decline
On October 15th, Beijing steel prices continued to fall. The transaction was mainly concentrated on a small number of low-cost resources. Steel prices were expected to be reversed by steel traders. The unstable demand made steel traders wait and see. Due to the high inventory, the limited production capacity of steel mills in Tangshan area can not be determined.