Crazy Gold Still Crazy The Second Great Depression Is Coming

Crazy gold is still "crazy."

August 11 just broke through the international spot gold price of 1,800 US dollars / ounce, just 7 days before hitting the 1900 US dollars / ounce mark, yesterday hit a record high of 1894.1 US dollars / ounce in Asian trading.

“The global financial market seems to be preparing for the Second Great Depression.” Xie Dongming, an analyst at OCBC Bank, Singapore, said yesterday.

Obviously, one of the less noticeable changes in the international financial market last week was: Last Thursday (18th) US Treasury yields fell to the lowest 1.98%, hitting a new low in April 1950 (61 years). Gold and US Treasuries are regarded as the most important safe-haven assets. Generally, in the face of a dim economic outlook, investors tend to transfer funds to these two assets.

Faced with the historically high price of gold, many domestic gold bull investors have chosen to continue to adhere to gain greater profits. Investment bullion sales are also in full swing. However, Zhang Lei, chief analyst of the Beijing Gold Exchange Center, reminded investors yesterday that gold prices are now at high risk and short-term investors can make profits.

Anytime can rise above 1900 US dollars yesterday's gold trend continued the sharp rise in the first three days.

As of 8 o'clock last night, the international spot gold price hit the highest 1894.1 US dollars / ounce, the New York ** gold electronic disk broke the highest 1898.6 US dollars / ounce, both set a new record high just last Friday.

Since August, international spot gold prices have begun to exert force from 1,628.88 US dollars per ounce, even breaking the two major thresholds of 1,700 US dollars/ounce and 1,800 US dollars/ounce. It was nearly 1900 US dollars/ounce yesterday. The cumulative price rose to 16.35 yuan, the highest price yesterday. %.

Domestically, yesterday, the Shanghai gold exchange's gold spot trading product Au9995 hit a maximum of 396 yuan per gram, closing at 390 yuan per gram, or 2.4%; Au9999 hit a high of 390.16 yuan per gram yesterday and closed at 389.8 yuan per gram, up 2.2%. ; Gold delayed delivery of Au (T + D) yesterday's highest impact of 390.3 yuan / gram, to close at 389.79 yuan / gram, or 2.3%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange main contract of gold 1112 yesterday hit a high of 392.67 yuan / gram, closing at 392.38 yuan / gram, or 2.89%. Both the highest price and the closing price brush their historical highs.

"According to the current situation, the $1900/oz mark may break at any time." Tao Xingyi, president of Golden Summit Gold Investment Group, said in an interview with the Post reporter yesterday.

Obviously, the world's largest gold ETF** US SPDR Gold Trust** has also increased its holdings of gold for four consecutive days. From August 17 to 20, it increased its holdings of 2.73 tons, 9.08 tons, 14.85 tons and 3.93 tons, respectively. , The net position is up to 1290.76 tons, and the maximum holding price is 1852.05 US dollars. / ounce, the minimum holding price is $ 1,786.63 / oz.

Global MF Global yesterday pointed out that due to the weakness of global stock markets and the market will be re-priced for the possibility of economic recession, gold prices will find support at the beginning of this week. The agency believes that the price of gold may reach the key resistance level at 1946 US dollars per ounce, but it needs more stimulus to break this resistance level.

Risk aversion super gold rose in 2008 and then rose?

Looking at market analysts, Fed ** Bernanke will deliver an important speech on economic and monetary policy at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting in Wyoming this Friday (August 26th) or the direct cause of yesterday's gold rally.

Because of some analysts' concerns, Bernanke may announce the launch of QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing policy) at this weekend's meeting to stimulate economic growth. After all, it was at last year's Jackson Hole Central Bank annual meeting that Bernanke made the suggestion of launching QE2 and set off a big rally in asset prices.

Last week's employment data released by the United States was less than expected, so the Fed is indeed likely to launch a new round of stimulus policies.

However, there are different views in the market. Many economists, including JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli, believe that although Bernanke will list options that may stimulate the economy, taking into account inflation**, it is expected that in the short term Bernanke is unlikely to announce measures.

According to these analysts, on the one hand, the economic outlook is bleak. On the other, policy makers seem to have no means. The lack of confidence in the global economic outlook is the real reason why gold prices have soared.

Obviously, the ten-year US Treasury yield fell below 2% on two consecutive occasions on Thursday and Friday. (Editor's note: The lower the bond yield is, the higher the price is, that is, the more people buy it). It closed on Friday. 2.06%. According to statistics, even after the 2008 Lehman crisis, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note never fell below 2%, while the previous yield fell below 2% to trace back to the Second World War. It means that the market's risk aversion is extremely serious."

What can be testified is that, in recent days, “trend” has included traditional treasury securities such as US Treasury bonds, gold, and Swiss kroner. The stock market, for example, fell sharply.

Domestic investors boldly do more international gold at a high level, and domestic gold has a strong position. However, the continued enthusiasm of domestic investors continues unabated.

Gold T + D individual investor Zhu Jiangyao said to the Morning Post reporter yesterday that he now sees more, bought two hands to do more gold, one hand in the 340 yuan / can be entered nearby, one hand in the 370 yuan / gram into the average price of 360 Yuan/g, now the book profit is nearly 80,000 yuan. Zhu Jiangyao's initial investment in the market is about 200,000 yuan, and the current total profit is about 50,000 yuan.

Zhu Jiangyao said that because it is profitable, it is now very secure to hold and continue to see more.

A member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a member of a comprehensive class of executives, told the Morning Post reporter yesterday that most of the investors are still doing more. The company’s legal person households are basically doing more, and they have been holding for some time, short investors are very Less, and basically all short-term transactions.

The price of gold ornaments was raised yesterday while gold prices continued to hit new highs, while Shanghai's gold jewelry prices also kept rising.

Wang Yufei, sales director of China Gold Group Shanghai Gold Co., Ltd., told the Morning Post yesterday that after the price was raised on Monday, the price of gold jewelry in Shanghai Qianjin Gold (999 gold) was raised again last week, from the previous week. One of the 445 yuan / gram raised to 453 yuan / gram, the investment price of gold bars also increased from the original 390 yuan / gram to 400 yuan / gram.

It is worth mentioning that Wang Yufei said that due to the large increase in the price of gold on Monday, the gold price of Chinese gold in Shanghai may be immediately raised again.

In addition, according to Wang Yufei, in August this year, the sale of investment gold bars in China Gold Group in Shanghai was very hot.

Wang Yufei said: “The sales of investment bars in August exceeded the monthly sales in July. It is expected that the final sales volume in August will be twice that of July. However, the sales volume of gold jewelry has not changed much, just like usual. ."