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Due to the recent increase in the price of foods with a high contribution rate to CPI, according to the general forecast of the organization, the CPI will still fall by about 1.2% in August, but the decline has narrowed, or the price of the adult will be “inflection pointâ€.
August CPI is expected to continue to fall or "inflection point" in adulthood
As of the 11th, according to the Ministry of Agriculture's fixed-point monitoring of 470 markets across the country, pork prices have risen for 10 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 23.1%, and egg prices have also risen for five consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of 6.2%. Since food commodities account for about one-third of China's consumer price index (CPI), from the past data, food is often the most influential factor for CPI. Therefore, institutions have predicted that due to the “contribution†of food prices, the CPI in August will become the “turning point†of prices during the year.
The Research Department of the Bank of Communications released a research report saying that with the recent seasonal increase in food prices, the decline in non-food prices has continued to narrow and the negative effects of the hikes have weakened in the following months. Therefore, the year-on-year growth of CPI in August will see negative growth for the seventh consecutive month, but the decline has narrowed significantly. It is predicted that August should be the inflection point of CPI during the year, with a year-on-year increase of -1.2%, and the future CPI will begin to bottom out. Shanghai Securities released a research report also predicted that August CPI fell by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the price of the "inflection point" is forming. The PPI fell by 8.26% year-on-year, a slight increase from the previous month's 8.2%.
Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, expects CPI to fall by about 1.2% year-on-year in August, a sharp drop from the 1.8% in July. The Industrial Bank's monthly outlook report indicates that the CPI growth in August is expected to be -1.2%. Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, believes that due to the seasonal decline in food prices and the stabilization of non-food prices, the CPI in July may already be the low point of the year. It is expected that the CPI will increase by -1.2% in August.
PMI data is getting a good start. What other data is worth paying attention to?
The August macroeconomic data was first “promoted†by the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The August PMI was 54.0%, and it was above the 50% critical line for the sixth consecutive month. Some analysts pointed out that the increase in PMI has once again confirmed that China's economic recovery is maintaining a strong momentum, indicating that China's exports are likely to bottom out.
Due to the implementation of China's economic stimulus package and the resurgence signals from major international economies, many institutions and experts have predicted that domestic demand data such as industrial added value, investment and consumption will continue to grow strongly in August. The momentum of China's economic recovery will be even stronger.
The decline in foreign trade has narrowed sharply. Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, said that exports are expected to fall by 19.7% year-on-year in August, which is much narrower than the decline in July. The reason is that the export data of several representative countries and regions are improving with the recovery of overseas economy, the price of US and Europe is falling, the recovery represented by the US housing market has begun, and the European countries' PMI and UK retail sales are higher than the market in July. expected.
In addition, Li Ke, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said at the press conference that exports in August are expected to increase from last month, and the year-on-year decline is also narrower than that in July. The overall outlook for exports has improved. He said that from the data of recent months, China's exports will certainly get better and better, but it is hard to say when it will resume positive growth.
As a sub-indicator of the PMI index, the new export order index is also on the rise for several months. Shenyin Wanguo Li Huiyong believes that the new export order index has the highest correlation with the four-month export change, and the prospect of the port is getting better. Li Huiyong predicted that the decline in exports will gradually narrow in the second half of the year, and the export growth rate may turn positive in November.
Loan growth will be more stable According to multi-predictive information, in the monthly data, the more critical new RMB loans will be more stable in August, and the steady decline is no doubt.
In July, the credit increase fell sharply to 355.9 billion yuan. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Liu Mingkang, said in an interview in Basel, Switzerland the day before yesterday that the growth rate of China's loans is benign and reasonable, and will be more stable in the second half of the year. Government officials have recently reiterated that they will continue to adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy.
According to previous analysis by many analysts, the preliminary statistics of China's banking industry's new loans in August was 320 billion yuan, the second consecutive month of the year's new low. China Merchants Securities expects new credit to be around 350 billion in August, which is basically the same as in July. The agency believes that the size of the monthly credit in the second half of the year should not be less than 300 billion, which is also the psychological bottom line recognized by the regulatory authorities for stabilizing economic expectations and maintaining a reasonable and steady increase in credit.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank's fund operation center, said recently that since the amount of notes due in August was significantly lower than that in July, the new credit factor was weakened by the bill, and the fourth batch of central investment led to the increase in loans. There are more factors contributing to the acceleration of credit supply this month. However, he also said that the decline in the availability of risk-controllable projects, the pressure on capital adequacy ratios on bank credit expansion, and the strengthening of macro-control sensitivities will lead to a sharp decline in credit. The Lu political commissar expects that new credit in August will fall back to 300 billion.
CICC believes that taking into account the recent intensive credit risk control measures introduced by the CBRC will put pressure on the remaining five months of new loans. They expect that the new RMB loans in August will reach 300-350 billion, and this year will reach 9 trillion to 9.5 trillion.
Industrial added value Due to the financial crisis and the suspension of production during the Olympics, the growth rate of industrial added value in August last year was lower than that in July. Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, said that the industry's year-on-year growth rate will rebound sharply this month, with a growth rate of 11.0%-12.0%.
Dong Xianan, chief macro analyst of Industrial Securities, also said that the overall growth trend of China's economy is stable, and the industrial recovery trend is stable. It is expected that industrial added value will increase by 12.5% ​​in August.
Fixed Assets Investment Industry experts continue to maintain an optimistic estimate of the growth rate of fixed asset investment in August, and believe that fixed asset investment in August will continue to maintain high growth. Ha Jiming, chief economist of CICC, estimates that the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment in January-August is about 33%. The research report released by the National Information Center recently pointed out that in the future, China's investment trend will show the slowdown in government investment growth and the overall growth rate is declining. The report predicts that urban fixed asset investment will increase by about 32% in the third quarter.
Chen Lu, a macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities, said that due to the booming real estate sales, the trend of accelerated real estate investment growth will continue, and the growth rate of real estate investment will increase in August. Therefore, it is expected that investment will reach 33.4% in January-August. Lu Zhengwei, an economist at Industrial Bank, said that the increase in investment by the central government has significantly boosted the growth rate of investment in the current month and the next month. In August, the growth rate of urban fixed investment will reach 33.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Hao Daming, a macro analyst at Galaxy Securities, also expressed the same view. He expects fixed asset investment to reach 33.3% in August.
For the growth of consumption of social consumer goods, Tang Jianwei, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Research Department, said that from the long-term performance of China's consumption, large-scale growth is unlikely to occur. It is expected that the total retail sales of consumer goods in August will increase by 15.5%. And consumption has maintained a relatively fast growth rate.
According to a research report by Haitong Securities, as the total retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas accounts for a higher proportion of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, the rebound in urban consumption growth will have a greater impact on stimulating consumption. According to estimates, in 2008, the total retail sales of urban social consumer goods accounted for 68.2% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society. In the first half of 2009, the proportion of urban consumption was 67.9%.
Dong Xianan believes that the high elasticity of the optional consumption growth in the first half of 2009 on real interest rates indicates the potential for retail growth. With the continuous release of purchasing power, the contribution of consumption to GDP is gradually increasing, and the internal optimization process of domestic demand has been quietly carried out. He predicted that nominal retail sales in August increased by 15.5% year-on-year, and actual retail sales increased by 16.8% year-on-year, which was basically the same as in July.
August economic data is now published in CPI or will be "inflection point" in adulthood
Monthly economic data for August will be announced on the 11th. According to monthly economic data, the new system will be released in the form of a press conference, including CPI, PPI, consumption, investment, industrial added value, credit, and foreign trade import and export data will be released today.