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Xu Xiangchun, director of the information network of my steel network, predicts that the current inventory of four major steel products is 12.4 million tons, which continues to decline on a week-on-week basis, but the rate of decline slows down. According to the current domestic steel supply and demand situation, with reference to the level of previous years, after the Spring Festival (end of February and early March), the entire social inventory increased by about 40%, that is, the level of 17 million tons, which is not a very high amount.
However, Sheng Zhicheng, deputy secretary-general of the Steel Logistics Professional Committee, is more concerned about the tightness of credit, which directly determines whether the market has the ability to winter storage.
Winter storage costs hit a record high
Xu Xiangchun told the China Securities Journal reporter that due to the recent increase in prices, the current cost of winter storage is too high, and the market is hesitant about winter storage. On December 13, Baosteel raised its steel price, which may drive other steel mills to raise steel prices.
In contrast to the market weakness, last week, mainstream steel mills began to see collective price hikes, and their prices were almost daily. For example, the ex-factory prices of South China Guanggang and Liugang have even reached 5,100 yuan/ton. It is a foregone conclusion that the cost of storage has reached a record high.
After the weakening of the first week of the first week of December, the domestic building materials inventory showed signs of Masukura last week. It can be seen that the current inventory trend is still repeated. Compared with the time nodes of the previous winter storage Masukura from the end of November to the beginning of December, the delay of winter storage this year can be confirmed.
At present, the national building materials inventory performance is repeated. The monitoring data of the Nishimoto Shinkansen shows that the total inventory of construction steel in major cities in China last week was 5.133 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week, and the weekly lightening intensity was 0.9%.
The Nishimoto Shinkansen believes that the size of the winter storage this year will be questionable in light of the current record high cost of winter storage and the rising cost of capital.
Credit tightness determines the scale of winter storage
Sheng Zhicheng believes that “the funds face the inventoryâ€, the winter storage is postponed, there are problems with inventory and cost, but in fact, the relationship with the capital is very large. For example, this year's high steel inventories are due to the loose credit and the ability to store more steel resources.
He told the China Securities Journal that the People's Bank of China announced on the 10th that the reserve ratio would be raised by 0.5 percentage points, which is close to the new high since 2008. At the same time, the discount rate has been reflected in the past one month, most banks. The discount was stopped.
Steel winter storage itself requires a lot of money, once the monetary tightening will directly affect the market demand for increased steel stocks.
Xu Xiangchun believes that under the recent price increase of Baosteel, due to the small market inventory, there will be a small increase, but after 2 weeks, as the energy conservation and emission reduction immediately ends, the steel mill resumes production and the market supply increases. This change in the direction of the market is a big probability.
"Now the winter storage is not the most important issue," Sheng Zhicheng told the China Securities Journal reporter that in terms of inventory, the stock of steel mills is actually a blind spot. If this inventory and supply and demand continue now, the current market will continue. Now we must focus on the credit scale policy next year, which is the blood of the winter storage.
Steel winter storage costs hit a record high
On December 14, according to the monitoring data of the domestic spot trading platform Xiben Shinkansen, the steel price index remained at 4,660 yuan/ton, the mainstream market price was stable, the market showed that most of the specifications were not sold, and the overall sales were very weak.