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Reuters commentary (April 14)
LME Market: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal fell out of the earlier low on Thursday, as the bargain-hunting buyers showed up, reducing the decline. One trader said: "Today's trading is busy, from the very beginning The volume is very large. Now, we see some buying come into play, and that day's write-offs are covering short positions. "As of 1600GMT, LME's six primary metal contracts have exceeded 711,000 tons in trading volume in electronic trading systems. The index’s three-month copper fell to an eight-week low of US$3,110 per tonne, which was US$228 or 6.8% lower than Tuesday’s record high of US$3,338. It ended the day lower than US$51, or 1.6%, to US$3,142. Again, a large number of settlements led to a sharp decline in the base metal market. Traders said that the market may fall further. The base metal prices suffered heavy losses in October 2004 and January 2005, but both rose strongly and hit new highs afterwards. Sellers are predominantly fund-based, and the market is increasingly worried that speculators will make big sales. Speculators have been investing their funds in the commodity market for the past 18 months. "This is a large-scale shakeout... It has caused damage to the market. However, from a macro perspective, It has been too long for the grid to remain at a too high level," said a source. "Will this wave of decline alter the overall cyclical performance of the market? No. It is now a good opportunity to buy base metals." Partner of Diapason Commodities Management Bell said. The decline in LME helped boost physical cargo demand, but the Shanghai Commodity Futures Exchange spot monthly contract fell on Thursday. Traders said that the market is waiting for the Shanghai market to release inventory data on Friday and will also observe the dollar against the week. 5. The reaction of data on US capital flows that emerged from the United States showed that most of the other base metals followed copper futures. The three-month zinc fell by 46 US dollars, or 3.5%, to 1,256, which hit a low of 1,232.5. The monthly lead contract closed down 14 US dollars at 919 US dollars. It once hit a low of 887.5 since January 14th. The three-month nickel closed higher at 145 US dollars to 15,420, which is supported by the inverse price difference between spot and 3-month periods. • Three-month tin fell by 50 US dollars to close at 8,000. LME copper: Copper futures closed below the 3,110/3,120 range, and the key 100-day moving average also crossed the region. If the period of copper fell below the moving average entry, it may fall further. Under $3,000. LME Aluminum: Three-month aluminum fell by US$25, or 1.3%, to US$1,860 with a volume of more than 310,000 tons. It earlier fell to 1,842.5, which was lower since February 14. COMEX Copper: New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) Copper fell sharply on Thursday, and the fund continued to sell copper. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the US economy will grow faster than the EU and Japan, triggering a sell-off of dollar-related funds, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices." Alaron Trading Metals Analyst McGonagall said that indicator May copper closed down 3.10 cents to $1.4285, after falling to a two-month low of $1.41. May copper fell sharply from Tuesday's high of 1.5360. This high was 1989. For the first time since March of this year, copper reached a record high of 1.6065 USD in December 1988. In April, the spot copper closed down 2.95 cents to 1.4455 US dollars per pound on Wednesday. It rose to 1.55 U.S. dollars higher on Wednesday. Other far-month contracts The price is down 2.55-3.10 cents. Today's estimated volume is 26,000, down from 38,048 on Wednesday.