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Experts look at the general trend "The machine tool market in 2006 will be very severe, companies must stand firm and meet the challenges." Yang Xuetong, executive deputy secretary-general of the China Machinery Industry Federation, feels that there is a breeze blowing from the ears. He predicted that the growth rate of the machine tool industry will decline rapidly next year, from high-speed development to steady development.
However, Wu Bolin’s statement is calm and much more entangled. As the Director General of the China Machine Tool Association, Wu Bolin quantified the market situation next year. "Overall, in 2006, the machine tool industry will still show a stable and rapid development pattern. It is expected that the growth rate will remain at around 15%. The total industrial output value and sales revenue of the whole industry will reach 150 billion yuan, of which CNC cutting The output of machine tools will exceed 70,000 units. The consumption of metalworking machine tools will be around 12 billion US dollars," he said in an interview with reporters in Beijing.
In the eyes of decision makers in machine tool companies, the concept of the market has become more specific. They are more concerned about the market trends of different types of products. Yin Xiangdong, chairman of Guilin Machine Tool Co., Ltd. believes that the production and sales of ordinary machine tools and small CNC machine tools have dropped significantly this year and will continue to decline next year. The production and sales of CNC machine tools, especially large, extra large, high-end, precision CNC machine tools will continue to rise next year. Jin Yi, director of Tianjin No. 1 Machine Tool Plant, believes that the production and sales of special machine tools are expected to be flat this year, and there will be no major fluctuations. With the “Eleventh Five-Year†funds coming into place, there may be a big development in special machine tools in 2007. Long Xingyuan, chairman of Qinchuan Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. believes that the growth rate of production and sales of CNC gear grinding machines has reached 30%~40% this year. The growth rate next year will not be as fast as this year, and may increase by 10%~15%. Xue Tongyi, deputy general manager of Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd., believes that the trend of the machine tool industry during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period should not be pessimistic or blindly optimistic, but the growth rate will not be as fast as the “10th Five-Year Planâ€. Next year's industry-wide production and sales growth of 20% is not bad. He Qian, general manager of Guangdong Shunlian Machinery City, believes that with the increase in product upgrades and technological transformation of private enterprises, the sales volume of machine tools in the Pearl River Delta region will increase by about 20% next year.
Sheng Bohao, deputy chief engineer of the Beijing Machine Tool Research Institute, believes that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the development trend of the machine tool industry is to develop in the direction of high efficiency, high precision, compound, intelligent and environmental protection. Xu Zhengping, deputy director of the marketing department of Shanghai Machine Tool Sales Co., expects that the demand for the machine tool market will increase by about 10% next year. This means that the growth rate of the machine tool market will fall by more than 15% next year.
The trend of Lido and the bear market has always been full of uncertainty, so careful analysis of the favorable and unfavorable factors is necessary to correctly judge the market trend.
In terms of the Lido factor, Yang Xuetong believes that the "Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of the Equipment Manufacturing Industry" proposes to develop large-scale, precise, high-speed, high-efficiency CNC machine tools to meet the needs of the country. This is a good thing for the machine tool industry. In addition, the state will provide support for the use of the first and first domestic equipment. The state continues to implement the VAT refund policy for the production of CNC machine tools and will continue to increase its efforts. This preferential policy was originally implemented only for about 30 enterprises. Now, enterprises that have expanded to the production of CNC machine tools to a certain scale can enjoy this tax benefit. The state will also adjust the tax policy for imported machine tools to reduce imports. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†major special plan, the Ministry of Science and Technology listed the CNC machine tool development project and gave strong support in terms of funds. Support is the biggest ever.
Wu Bolin said that in 2006 China's investment in fixed assets will maintain a reasonable scale and a certain growth rate, which provides a good development opportunity for the machine tool industry. The focus of national investment next year will be in the fields of aerospace, marine, railway, heavy metallurgical machinery, power generation equipment, automobiles and parts, and military. Next year, the aerospace industry needs a large number of high-speed machining centers, five-axis machining centers and five-axis high-speed gantry milling machines. As the country's investment in the railway locomotive industry increases, a large number of heavy-duty special-purpose machine tools are needed. Next year, major technical equipment, such as petrochemical general equipment and heavy metallurgical machinery, will grow at a high speed, which will certainly promote the development of large-scale CNC machine tools.
Zheng Guowei, an expert in mechanical and electrical import and export, believes that with the adjustment of the central and local share of import and export tax rebates, machine tool companies will receive more tax rebates in 2006. He said that on August 1 this year, the State Council issued a notice to adjust the proportion of central and local tax rebates. The original tax rebate was shared by the central government by 75%, and the local share was 25%. After adjustment, the central government assumed 92.5%, and the local government assumed 7.5%. In the past, it was difficult for companies to get a 25% local tax rebate. After adjustment, machine tool companies could get more tax rebates.
In terms of negative factors, Yang Xuetong said that next year, the state will reduce the interest rate for the technological transformation of the machine tool mainframe factory, which means that the main engine factory will have to pay more for the technical transformation. Next year, with the further development of the key user industry of automobile, steel, electric power and other machine tools, the demand for machine tools will definitely be further reduced. In addition, the compliance rate of the machine tool purchase contract is very poor, and some contracts have been executed, but the payment is delayed.
Wu Bolin believes that the development of the functional components of CNC machine tools in China will not be greatly improved next year, and has become a bottleneck affecting the development of the whole industry. The situation that a large number of domestic machine tools use foreign functional components will continue next year. In addition, China's machine tool enterprises lack the complete supply capacity and cannot meet the needs of users for the entire production line and complete sets of equipment.
Relevant people believe that next year is the first year of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". According to the usual practice, it is difficult for funds to be in place in the first year, which will certainly cause certain difficulties for the sales of machine tools next year.
Strategies for coping For the enterprise, the overall trend of the market is difficult to control. However, different contingency strategies may have different effects.
At the Guilin seminar, the former Minister of Machinery Industry He Guangyuan gave advice to the company: First, overcome the convergence and enter new areas. Some private enterprises have repeatedly produced ordinary machine tools, resulting in the convergence of products. It is necessary to guide this part of the investment to innovation, develop high-speed milling machines and machining centers that are urgently needed in the production and mold industry; various machine tools required for the electronic information industry; precision machining machines required for engines and oil pump nozzles. Second, the realization of the transition from single-machine supply to complete supply. Third, vigorously improve the reliability of the machine tool and product life, to ensure delivery time.
The former vice minister of the Ministry of Machinery Industry, Shen Liechu believes that the machine tool industry should vigorously develop products with independent intellectual property rights and cultivate first-class developers; pay attention to the training of senior technicians and skilled workers; strengthen the improvement and improvement of process technology; The numerical control system must take the road of specialized production, and transform China from a machine tool producing country into a machine tool producing country. Yang Xuetong specially reminded enterprises to pay attention to timely recovery of goods and not to create new defaults.
Yin Xiangdong said that Guilin Machine Tool will increase the production of large, heavy, extra large CNC machine tools and CNC universal milling heads next year, compress the output of low-grade ordinary machine tools, and concentrate on improving the high-end products, five-axis linkage machine tools, and pentahedron machining centers. The level of the product. Yu Ying, general manager of Shanghai Machine Tool Works Co., Ltd. said that it is necessary to increase the development of large-scale CNC cylindrical grinding machines, special machines and small CNC grinding machines next year, highlighting “extreme manufacturingâ€. Sun Yimin, general manager of Hangzhou Machine Tool Group Co., Ltd. said that the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†of Hangji should adhere to the first main business of machine tools and build a machine tool manufacturing base of 120,000 square meters. Li Weiqian, chairman of Tianshui Xinghuo Machine Tool Co., Ltd. said that Spark Machines should take product projects as a link and gradually form regional industrial clusters by integrating resource advantages. Further increase product adjustment efforts, with heavy-duty, precision machine tools as the development goal.
Machine Tool Industry 2006 Forecast Dialogue
The year 2005 is about to pass, standing at the head of this year-end, the topic of concern to the people in the machine tool industry is the trend of the market next year. To this end, the reporter interviewed the head of the China Machine Tool Association, and participated in the "2006 China Machine Tool Industry Market Situation and Countermeasures Seminar" held by Guilin in China from December 10th to 12th. Most people in the industry believe that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2006 will continue to decline, from high-speed growth to steady development.