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Copper and aluminum week review
The copper market commentary This week, the market is generally defensive. The three-month price briefly briefly fell below the 100-day moving average at $3135, and then the price tried to rebound. As the Chinese authorities pour cold water on the renminbi revaluation, the US has once again strengthened. The US interest rate is on schedule. The increase, but the more disappointing economic data is gradually easing the pressure on the radical control of inflation, so the dollar has slowly declined again. Two reports released this week suggest that the basic metal bull market is now peaking, overall The trend will be low in the second half of the year, rising inventories, slow demand (beyond China) and weak economic growth in the West are all considered to be bearish. However, some people still think that the trend of copper can withstand bearish expectations and the price will once again surpass April. The high point reached. The extended 'ultra-delay cycle', expanded industrial production and supply gaps from the bullish perspective continue to exist. Copper's average price is expected to be between $2940 and $3300 this year. LME stocks continue to have net inflows, but the arrivals and delivery volumes are generally small. It is interesting if the technical short-term and subsequent technical tensions in the May period can ease or attract More metal storage. Futures premiums have eased to $125/130, but light trading remains the main feature of the deal this week, during which many holidays make the volume significantly lower. Copper inventories fell to 17,265 tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a one-month low. At the same time, some metals may have arrived sooner. Large arrivals are expected in the middle of the month because higher domestic prices are making imports profitable. Demand outside of China is disappointing. Copper products shipped from US copper The volume in February decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, and cable shipments in Japan fell by 4% over the same period. We are still not inclined to believe that the market has already gone. Although long-term fund investors decided to honor their profits, there is no doubt that prices will indeed fall rapidly. Still feel that the futures premium will remain a key issue? Significant contraction will trigger long positions, while maintaining any expansion will hinder short selling. Technical analysis short-term trends are still widely neutral, prices in the past In a few days is digesting (not energy allocation). The window of time for meaningful downward break seems to be closing ---- at least now - further rises are considered on the weekly and monthly lines While it is not sustainable, it seems possible that prices will regain strength in the next few trading days. The fall in prices continues to see support at 3100, followed by the second branch. With the support at 3050, the risk of bearish appears to be limited at the moment. At the same time, the previous high of 3345 should limit the price increase again. The loss of bullish energy in the broad sense should be enough to stop it and eventually form an anti-yearly upward trend. turn. However, further turbulence roofing activity seems to be possible before this, the price still has the risk of returning to the 3345 high point area, and may be limited to surpass this high point and thus form the immediate top. While the current price is The volatility seems to be exhausted, support continues to appear when the price falls back to 3100, and the price falls below the psychological level of 3,000 will probably think that the reversal has already formed. Technical strategy: Waiting for better prices (clinching when a limited new high is formed) Re-entering the market short. At the same time tend to buy in the fall to 3100 and 3050, below the protection of 3000. Aluminium Market Comment A disappointing week in the aluminum market, with a three-month price showing a low of $1764, the futures discount has newly emerged and expanded to $12/13. Short-selling-driven prices on the option declaration date have further fallen, but are at $1780 The expected support is short-lived. Quite a few consumer purchases appear at a lower price, which is also expected, but the light trading activity during the holiday period has limited the amount of buying. Alcan’s chief executive was optimistic about the market at his recent shareholder meeting and pointed out the positive fundamentals. The completion of the clearance and the demand exceeds the supply of 200,000 tons. He acknowledged that the increase in demand will be less than what was achieved in 2004. Half (on the whole because of the restocking of last year), but overall it is the average upper limit of demand growth in the past 10 years. The long positions held by the fund and investors have kept the price weak, but the inventory is still at a low level. Demand is still stable, but with the improvement of Becancour's recovery of full-load production and supply, Alouette's production is also increasing. Demand in Europe continues to flatten. The current chart appears to have formed a declining channel, although RSI comes in December. The low point may stimulate some speculative buying to take place soon. Futures discounts are currently encouraging long liquidation, but we feel that the market may soon be oversold. Technical analysis Current technical oversold should be able to block the past The fall in prices in several weeks — or at least temporarily — indicates that prices will try to rebound in the next few days. Technical studies indicate a reappearance of prices The strong will prove to be an amendment (at least before the bottom form is confirmed) but at the same time the bearish risk appears to be relatively limited. The pressure on the support near 1750 or the support near 1700 appears to be able to accommodate the price further at the moment. Weak, there was not too much resistance before 1840 then 1900. From the near-2,000 U.S. dollar drop has apparently undermined the bullish long-term trend, although the price is still far from achieving its fundamental form of increase in its existence, currently The short-selling appears to be impulsive and trend-like, rather than a short-term retracement. The subsequent price recovery may only prove to be a rebound in the decline since March, in the absence of any new energy accumulation ( Or bottoming), the target for the price to fall again will be 1700 or 1650 - it cannot be ruled out in the coming weeks. Technical strategy: It tends to wait for a higher price to re-finance. At the same time, when the price falls back to the current support (see 1840/1900 reappear) unless 1700 falls. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.