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Construction Information (06.21): Copper and Aluminum
Jianshe Information (06.21): Copper and aluminum recently added a "Risk Warning" column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of the icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5% Risk Warning: Bullish Risk: ☆☆ Short-term risk: ☆ Tip: Eastern: Last week, LME copper and aluminum rebounded, LME March copper closed at 2,619 US dollars / ton, up 64 US dollars, fluctuation range of 2655 to 2,493 US dollars / ton, and Shanghai copper relative to London copper The price-to-price ratio has increased significantly compared with the previous period. LME March aluminum closed at US$1705.5/ton, up by US$71, with a trading range of 1713.5~1618 USD/ton. LME copper stocks fell by 6,700 tons in the week and stocks were 114,200 tons. LME aluminum stocks fell by 20,800 tons in the week and stocks were 982,200 tons. The Shanghai Stock Exchange increased its copper inventories by 6,673 tons, with a stock of 71,800 tons; aluminum inventories decreased by 1916 tons and stocks were 148,800 tons. Last week, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar remained an important factor for LME copper. The US Labor Department announced on Thursday that the producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.8% in May, excluding the price of volatile foods and energy. The US core price index for the month rose by only 0.2%. This figure eased the market's concerns about US inflation. The US dollar exchange rate once weakened, but after all, there are still pressures to raise interest rates in July. The US dollar exchange rate is still in turmoil only recently. Domestically, China’s fixed asset investment increased by 18.3% year-on-year in May, a decrease of 16.4 percentage points from the month of April, and the increase in fixed asset investment showed a rapid decline. At the same time, the money supply and loan growth rates in May have Slowed down, these data reflect that China's macro-control measures have achieved certain results, but the macro-control's impact on the market is still worthy of attention. In summary, the trend of the recent exchange rate of the US dollar, the impact of domestic macroeconomic controls on the market, and the change in the supply and demand side of Shanghai Copper and the increase in the price relationship between the LME Copper are still the focus of our attention. The technical outlook is that the medium term holds a weak point of view. , And there will be repeated in the short term. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price rose slightly on Friday's trade due to the depreciation of the US dollar. US current projects hit record highs and caused investors to sell the US dollar. This triggered the intervention of the copper market, but the pressure at 2650 remains. It appears to be extremely heavy. It may be difficult to shake up this position by relying solely on the rise and fall of the US dollar, and the technical chart indicates further pressure on the 2680/2700 line. Spot premiums have apparently declined after the delivery. The advent of the off-season consumption period has caused us to doubt whether the rising structure can be well maintained. It is expected that Shanghai CUCU411 will test the pressure level of 24800 on Monday, with further pressure at 25,000, and strong support at 24500. Investors are advised to hold short positions near 25,000, and chase is currently not recommended. Daily commentary: He Haihai: On the Thursday, led by the sharp rise of nickel and aluminum futures, copper also showed a mid-range increase. At the end of the session, the LME Copper March closed at 2632, up nearly 40 points from the previous trading day. The market's total contract turnover was 44 261 lots in each month, and the extremely shrinking volume indicated that the main driving force for the intraday copper price uptick yesterday was the increase in peripheral products rather than the resumption of active buying in the market. Domestic copper opened higher today, although London rose, but there was no follow-up buying in the country, and London's off-site copper prices also fell sharply. Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced earlier that the manufacturing index rose to 28.9 in June, exceeding the previous forecast of 25.0. The US Labor Department also announced on Thursday that the producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.8% in May. Previously expected to achieve a larger increase since March 2003. The core PPI, deducting food and energy, also exceeded expectations by 0.3%, making people uneasy about inflation. At the same time, the US Economic Advisory Council announced that the leading indicator in May rose by 0.5%. To 116.5. In addition, the number of jobless claims in the United States fell to 336,000 in the week of June 12th, compared to 351,000 in the previous week. The above figures show that there is not much change in the strong economic fundamentals of the United States at this stage. There is still a technical possibility that the dollar will strengthen before the June 30 in the foreign exchange market, as long as the euro's current oscillation range has recently broken down. This is necessarily a negative factor for the price of copper metal. On the chart, the market's short-term upward trend remains good, but from the perspective of decreasing market positions, this round of copper price rise can only be positioned in a short-term rebound. Operational recommendations: short-term band operation overseas express delivery: COMEX copper market report: New York, June 18 news: As the market is in consolidation phase, Friday's New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) advanced copper futures closed down, the market lacks new external news guidelines. Since the close of Friday (11th), COMEX July copper has risen nearly 3 cents and reached a new high on the 17th. However, on the later day of the week (18th), COMEX July copper closed down 65 cents at $1.1925 per pound. Traders said that this week's (week 18) copper price rise was satisfactory, which is one of the reasons that caused the copper price to fall back, that is, the market began to consolidate. Dealers said that when copper prices again struggled near $1.20 per pound, some traders chose to take profit before the weekend. The highs of COMEX's July copper futures on Tuesday (15th), Thursday (17th) and Friday (18th) were 1.1970 US dollars, 1.2010 US dollars and 1.2020 US dollars, respectively, but the market momentum is insufficient. Traders expect that after COMEX's July copper breaks above 1.20 per pound, the next resistance will be around $1.24. Long-term support will be around $1.12. In the long run, fundamentals will support the copper market and other base metals markets. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 1,800 metric tons to 114,275 metric tons; COMEX copper stocks decreased by 2,183 short tons to 110,060 short tons. LME three-month copper fell 21 US dollars to close at 2,619 US dollars. LME Market Report London June 18 news: Due to failed to attract enough follow-up buying, the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed Friday nickel prices failed to remain above $ 15,000 to close at $ 14,400 (buy price). However, supported by bullish technical analysis and tight market supply, nickel prices have continued to rise this week. As investment funds declined during the period of inventory, they were involved in the market and pushed nickel prices to a four-month high. The nickel price was at 13,000. Triggered by stop-loss buying on the US dollar, the market hit a high of US$15,450. On the 18th, LME nickel stocks fell by 270 tons to 8,484 tons, which is the lowest level since March 2001. The current market's support is at US$14,000. The upside target is $15,000. If it falls below $14,000, see the next support level at $13,000. Traders said that nickel prices are expected to remain volatile (light market transactions have magnified price volatility). Standard Bank analyst in London Barr Said, "There have been similar gains in the past. The fund pursued nickel due to fundamental and technical factors. "In the declining LME inventories, and the tight supply, since Wednesday, the dense funds poured into the venue to buy The disk has pushed the price The cumulative rise of more than 2,000, and the gains are expected to continue. A market agency said, "Manufacturers will rarely shot to wait for prices to rise further, but consumers become increasingly anxious, because they still remember the trend of the recent climb Juye.LME announced on Friday that nickel inventories decreased by 270 tons to 8,464 tons, a low level since March 2001. Traders said that because there are still 1,464 tons of cancellation of warehouse receipts, further declines in inventory will be inevitable. This will cause stocks to fall significantly below the 2001 low of 8,304 tons, a key level not seen since October 1991. The supply tightness makes the pattern of reverse spreads compelling. The spot/three-month reverse spread has fallen from $165 on Thursday. Expanded to 600 U.S. dollars earlier this week to 100. If the price rose more than 15,000 U.S. dollars, it overheated. But in January it was as high as 17,720, a 15-year high, which is the next target. Barr said, "Ni-Ni Capable of rising sharply, nickel is often used to lead the rally in basic metals. "Analysts said that following the sharp rise in the previous quarter this year, the nickel market started a correction callback, and the fundamentals show that nickel will reappear in the second half of the year. "This year's estimated consumption is 1.1 million tons, which is 40,000 tons more than the supply. It is expected that In 2005, the supply gap will reach 45,000 tons, but before 2006/2007, there will not be a large increase in new production. The three-month aluminum price closed at $1,707 on the 18th (buy price). It rose to US$1,713.50. A small amount of profit settlement, light trading and lack of investor interest put pressure on the market. Taking into account the closing of the rally, the aluminum market is expected to attract more funds. The recent high of US$1,725 ​​is expected to become upward. Target LME aluminum inventories fell again by 5,650 tons to 982,250 tons on the 18th. Reduced inventory support for aluminum prices. Driven by weaker US dollar, copper prices once reached 2,650 US dollars on the 18th, but the subsequent profit shows that the copper price rose. The day's closing 2,613 US dollar (bid price). Copper prices are expected to remain stable at the range of 2,600-2,650 US dollars. Other base metal transactions are very light. Zinc prices in the 1,000-1,030 dollars trading range, tin prices closed below 9,000 US dollars, lead prices closed lower At 850 US dollars.