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Boshen Tools: High-speed rail brakes forehand to increase the rating
Diamond tools have always been the first major business of Boshen Tools (002282) (002282). As of the end of 2010, the company has successfully obtained diamond abrasives business in five production lines, and it is expected to exceed 17 production lines in 2011. The downstream industries of diamond tools mainly focus on infrastructure construction, construction, decoration and decoration of highways and bridges. It is expected that the industry growth rate will be about 15% in the next few years. As the leading domestic diamond tool, the company expects the business growth rate to reach 30% in the next three years. At the same time, the company attaches great importance to the expansion of marketing outlets and brand image building. It is one of the few diamond tool companies in China with a global sales network. The company will set up 300 marketing outlets nationwide, and extensive marketing network layout and powerful terminal control capabilities will lay a solid foundation for product sales and market expansion. At the same time, power tools are expected to become the company's second core business in recent years, with sales revenue accounting for more than one-third of the main business income. After the low-noise “drilling, cutting and grinding†small-scale construction and construction equipment projects are completed, the power tool production capacity will be increased by 6 times on the existing basis, and the revenue growth rate in the next three years will exceed 70%, which will become a performance increase. One of the main driving forces. Benefiting from the localization of high-speed rail brake pads During the formulation of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, high-speed rail is the priority development area in strategic emerging industries, and the process of localization of high-speed rail parts has entered the stage of incapacitation. We believe that high-speed rail brake pads are expected to be localized around 2012. From 2012 to 2015, the total market size of domestic high-speed brake pads will reach 3.996 billion yuan and 5.906 billion yuan respectively, and the average annual compound growth rate will be 24.1% in the next five years. The company's technology research and development strength, high-speed rail brakes first prominent advantage, will become the first beneficiaries of the localization of high-speed rail brakes. At present, the company has the invention patent of "high-speed railway vehicle brake pad" utility model and "a high-speed train brake pad and preparation method", and has the production technology of brake pads for high-speed railway vehicles of 300 km / h or less, 300 km. More than / hour high-speed rail brake pads are under development, have passed the test environment verification, product performance has reached the level of similar foreign products, is currently waiting for the Ministry of Railways 1:1 rack test and the road test, if progress is smooth, is expected in 2012 In the second half of the year, it will be qualified by the Ministry of Railways, and then through the one-year trial phase, it is expected to achieve mass production by the end of 2013. This is different from the market expectation that the company is expected to enter the high-speed rail brakes market in 2012 and contribute considerable performance. In addition, we believe that the management team's stable and flexible management style, extensive marketing network layout, and strong terminal control capabilities will become an important driving force for the company's performance growth. Earnings Forecast and Rating We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2010 to 2012 will be 431 million yuan, 648 million yuan, and 916 million yuan respectively; net profit will be 0.7 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and 156 million yuan respectively, corresponding to earnings per share. 0.40 yuan, 0.64 yuan, 0.90 yuan. Taking into account the market space of nearly 6 billion yuan after the localization of high-speed brake pads and the company's first-mover advantage, the investment rating of “overweight†is given.